Ehhhhh! A nice winning day in MLB, although a big middle finger to the Giants for blowing their lead against a road-team Rockies unit, gross.
The NBA Finals are here! Added a few more plays, too (designated by the *)
NBA Finals, Game 3:
Celtics 1Q -1, 1.5 units
Celtics 1H -2.5, 1 unit *
Celtics/Warriors 3rd QTR over 52.5, 1 unit *
Full Game under 212.5, 1.5 units
Much like the response we expected from Golden State, we expect the same aggression and retribution from Boston on Wednesday. Boston is back home at the TD Garden Arena and they’re well-aware that Golden State needs to win one of those road games to take the series back and have the home-court-advantage. The Celtics cannot allow the Warriors to penetrate the paint as often as they did in game two, and supporting cast members like Horford, Smart, and Grant Williams should have more productive games. I think the Celtics get off to a quick start and force Golden State to play from behind early, but watch out for that infamous 3rd quarter turn – wouldn’t be a bad idea to play on Golden State if that live line gets inflated.
As far as the total goes, at least one of these defenses will assert themselves in these contests and in all likelihood, both will win more than they’ll lose as this series drags on. Bodies are hurt (Tatum’s shoulder for example), players are battling and taking hard fouls, and getting into the paint will become more and more challenging. The pace dropped significantly at key moments in game two, partially because of the Warriors’ big lead, and even with a slew of turnovers we saw a total score that fell well-below the listed number; 212.5 feels 5-7 points too high; I’m on the under.
Added plays explanation: The Warriors may not ALWAYS win the third quarter, especially since Boston knows it’s coming and eventually they have to stumble (and this feels like the spot), but GS should no doubt push the pace. Since we expect the Warriors to be trailing at the half and in need of a spark, we should see the same old Golden State push after halftime and that usually creates a higher total than usual. That is, as only as Boston decides to score more than 15 points.
Props – Execute at your own discretion:
- First 3pt FG Made: Boston (-121)
- Marcus Smart over 13.5 pts (-114)
- Kevon Looney over 8.5 reb (-126)
- Al Horford over 1.5 threes (-115)
- Jaylen Brown over 2.5 threes (-130)
- Klay Thompson over 20 pts (-110)
MLB Picks:
Cubs (-125), 1.25 units to win 1
Going back to the well with CHC. The Cubs were one of our more confident plays yesterday with Thompson on the mound and, well, they blew it. I still believe in Stroman and although he got whacked in his last start, he’s long due for a better performance. This isn’t a bad spot today in Baltimore; he doesn’t have to be perfect against the O’s lineup and the Cubbies bats should be able to get on the board against a vulnerable Lyles (4.50 ERA, 5.10 xERA).
LAD -1.5 (-105), 1.5 units
Cueto is a beast but so is Gonsolin, and when’s the last time we’ve seen LAD get shut out? Actually we saw it recently when the Nats got that weird 1-0 win in Washington on May 25. What happened in LAD’s next contest? A 14-1 smashing in Arizona. Dodgers get revenge tonight.
