Quicker email today – a lot going on at the Farley estate.
Many of you and either on monthly subscription packages or your tied up with me for the NBA season, which will end by next week. Especially for those members, please consider the discounts at TheOddsBreakers for my premium picks moving forward. Hard to find a better deal anywhere for how much we win!
Thank you for all of your support as always – I love giving you guys winners! Onto my picks:
NBA Finals, Game 5:
Celtics 1Q +0.5, 1 unit
First Half over 103, 1 unit
Full Game under 212, 1.5 units
A lot to unpack here. Firstly, the roller-coaster-like nature of this series is forcing my hand a bit. Maybe we’re wrong, but even though the next game is at the Chase Center, I can only expect a professional and solid response from the Celtics. We’ve seen it time and time again – they thrive responding, especially on the road as dogs, and I like them early in this one. Although I think it’s VERY possible that the Warriors win (the line indicates they should), I would actually lean towards Boston to cover. Like Curry at the end of Game 4, the Celtics’ stars will push their wills at the end of this game in all likelihood.
As far as the totals go, I like our plays as a hedge but they’re also conducive to our narrative. Boston should come out very aggressive, which tends to push the Warriors’ pace, and Golden State’s offense is actually due for positive regression. Aside from Curry and Wiggins, the other contributors (lord knows, DRAYMOND) were not very effective offensively. I love points early but in such a contentious game, gotta love the full game under, too.
MLB Picks:
No Run in 1st Inning (-135), to win 1 unit
The Athletics continue to have one of the worst offenses in baseball, with only Detroit eclipsing them as THE worst in many categories. Both Irvin and Quatrill have been steady in allowing a few hits, which neither of these teams are great at producing, and limiting runs. I like this game to start slow.
Phillies -1.5 (even), to win 1.5 units
The Phillies are on a TEAR since dismissing Girardi and the players are saying how much better their communication is with their new interim coach. Kyle Nelson has some good tools but he’s young and this Philly lineup is playing with a ton of confidence. I think they keep it rolling and win by margin again today.
White Sox (-150), to win 1 unit
Kopech was brilliant last week against LAD and the Chicago bats won’t have nearly the same challenge against Jon Gray, who’s been in struggle-city in this short season.
