Stanley Cup Finals Preview & Picks – Game 1

June 15, 2022

336

The Stanley Cup Finals have arrived. If you missed it, I broke down the series and gave my picks out in earlier article. I’ll break down Game 1 of the Stanley Cup along with some game, team, and player props.

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: Tied 0-0)

Side Line Movement

The Colorado Avalanche are home favorites in the first game of the Stanley Cup Finals at -155 on the moneyline. During their two regular season games against the Lightning they went off at -110 and -115. Through out the entire playoffs, the Avalanche have been favorited to win every game. The last time the Lightning were underdogs was in their first two games on the road against Florida.

Total Line Movement

For the first game of the Stanley Cup finals, the total is set at 6.0 (-115/-105).

During their two regular season matchups, the total was set at 6.0 in both games. In their first game, the total went over 6.0 as they combined for 7 goals. Even through the total didn’t move in the second game, the over was juiced at -125. However in the second game, the total went under 6.0 as they combined for just 5 goals.

In Tampa Bay’s series against the Rangers, the total was set at 5.5 every game. If we look further back, the total was set at 6.5 in every game against the Panthers.

In Colorado’s last series, the total was set at 7.0 every game. If we go back one series before that against St. Louis, the total was set at 6.5 every game.

Trends

Under is 10-1 in Lightning last 11 overall.
Lighting are 4-0 in last 4 overall.
Avalanche are 5-0 in last 5 overall.

Game 1 Breakdown

The Avalanche have only lost two games this post season in route to the finals. Colorado has gone a perfect 7-0 on the road with a 5-2 record at home. Both of those two losses came at the hands of the St. Louis Blues in the second round. Tampa Bay has struggled a bit on the road during the playoffs going 5-4. Away from home their averaging less goals for and more goals against. Despite those numbers, their special teams has been excelling on the road. Both their Power Play percentage and Penalty Kill percentage are significantly better.

Colorado has won the first game of every series this post season while Tampa Bay has lost two of three. Based off what we saw during the regular season, this series should be extremely tight. In both of those games, the winner was decided by a single goal.

In the first round we saw Tampa Bay struggle a bit with the initial speed of Toronto as they dropped game 1, 5-0. I don’t think we see a similar score tonight but I do think the Avalanche take a 1-0 series lead. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been unbelievable since game 7 of that first series and will need to remain the backbone of this team if they’re going to win their third consecutive Stanley Cup.

I believe Colorado comes out flying tonight with the goal of trying to put as many shots on net as possible. I think Vasilevksiy stands up to the test but when the games said and done, Colorado will have gotten 2-3 by him on 35-36 shots on goal. Tampa Bay’s offense should be able to get 1-2 by Kuemper/ Francouz so it’ll come down to a third period goal by Colorado to win it.

TBL Injuries: B. Point (PROB- Leg)

COL Injuries: N. Kadri (QUES- Thumb), A. Cogliano (QUES- Hand), A. Burakovsky (PROB- Lower Body)

Team Prop Breakdown

TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-130/+100)

In the two regular season games against the Colorado Avalanche, the Lightning averaged 2.5 goals for. In their lone away game, they scored 2 with 3.17 xGoals For.

Overall, Tampa Bay is averaging 3.06 Goals For this post season but that number decreases to 2.56 when you just look at their away games. In Colorado’s 10 home playoff games, they’re averaging 2.00 goals against.

COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 3.5 including OT (+110/-140)

In the two regular season games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Avalanche averaged 3.5 goals for. In their lone home game, the scored 3 goals with 2.91 xGoals For.

Overall, Colorado has the highest scoring offense this post season averaging 4.64 goals for per game. At home, that number is slightly worse as they average 4.14 goals for per game.

Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)

Nikita Kucherov 0.5 points (-245/+190)

Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one point in each of his last five games. He’s also gone over this number is four of his last five games away from home. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he recorded a point in one of the matchups.

Alex Killorn 0.5 points (+135/-170)

Alex Killorn has yet to record a point since Game 6 of the first round against Toronto. He’s currently on an eleven game streak where he has yet to tally at least one point in any of those games. Before this cold streak Killorn had four points in the first six games of the playoffs. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he recorded a point in one of the matchups.

Mikko Rantanen 0.5 points (-250/+190)

Mikko Rantanen has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. At home, he has gone over this number in each of his last five games. In both regular season matchups against the Lightning he had at least one point.

Devon Toews 0.5 points (-135/+110)

Devon Toews has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. However, in his last five games at home he has only gone over this number twice. In the two regular season games against Tampa Bay, he recorded a point in one of the matchups.

Ondrej Palat 0.5 points (-120/-105)

Ondrej Palat has recorded at least one point in four of his last five games. On the road, he has gone over this number in three of his last five games. In both regular season matchups against the Colorado he had at least one point.

Gabriel Landeskog 2.5 shots (-175/+135)

Gabriel Landeskog has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. However, in his last five home games he has only gone over that number twice. In the two regular season matchups, he recorded over 2.5 shots in one of those games.

Steven Stamkos 2.5 shots (-175/+135)

Steven Stamkos has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. In his last five games on the road he has also gone over this number in four of his last five. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he only recorded more than 2.5 shots on goal in one of those matchups.

Anthony Cirelli 1.5 shots (-155/+125)

Anthony Cirelli has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in four of his last five games. However, in his last five away games he has only gone over that number twice. In the two regular season games against Colorado, he only recorded more than 1.5 shots on goal in one of those matchups.

Player Prop Breakdown – Goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy 31.5 Saves (-125/-105)

In Tampa Bay’s series against New York, Vasilevskiy only recorded over 31.5 saves in two of those six games. However, if we look back a series before that, he recorded over 31.5 saves in each of those four games.

The Rangers don’t have the same offensive talent as Florida so that makes sense. Turning to Colorado, they’re arguably the best offensive team in the NHL, and frankly it’s not even a debate.

In their two games against the Avalanche this season, he recorded 24 and 44 saves. Colorado is averaging 40.7 shots on goal per game in the playoffs. At home, that number jumps up to 43.14 shots for per game. In terms of shots against, Tampa Bay averages 31.0 on the road and 31.9 overall.

Darcy Kuemper 28.5 Saves (-105/-120)

It looks as through Darcy Kuemper will start Game 1 of Stanley Cup Finals. We last saw Kuemper in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals where he had to leave the game due to injury. He did start all six games against the St. Louis Blues where he recorded over 28.5 saves in three of those games.

In their two games against the Lightning, he recorded 29 and 36 saves. Tampa Bay averages 32.5 shots on goal for per game this post season. On the road, that number goes down to 31.0. In terms of shots against, Colorado averages 28.43 at home and 28.2 overall.

Picks