I enjoyed a +3.7u weekend and now find myself +13.11u over the last 5 weeks. I’m rolling with 4 plays to kick off the new week. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 -0.5(+115) vs Marlins–6:05 PM CT
We’ll see a dandy of a pitching matchup tonight with Sandy Alcanatara squaring off against Aaron Nola. Nola’s 3.50 ERA is one of the most deceiving stats in baseball; he holds the 3rd best WHIP in the league(0.88) and sees that WHIP drop all the way to 0.78 in his home ballpark. The Marlins offense is about as mediocre as they come, and they were gifted 6 unearned runs in their series in Houston over the weekend, which can make their “current form” seem better than it really is. They tallied just 3 hits vs Justin Verlander yesterday and will have just as tall of a task in this one. Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara has been nothing short of incredible here in 2022, but he greatly benefits from pitching at LoanDepot Park. Last year, Alcanatra held an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP over 1.20 on the road, and his road WHIP this year is 0.21 points higher than it is at home. The Phillies are 9-1 over their last 10 are scoring 6.5 runs/game in that span. In that span, they’ve beaten two top-of-the-line pitchers in Corbin Burnes and Zac Gallen. Some might see yesterday’s blowout loss as a sign of regression, but one off day is not going to keep me off a team that is still one of the hottest in baseball. I like Nola matching up with the mediocre Marlins offense and think the Phillies can continue their streak of dominance against top-of-the-line pitching. Rather than have to lay juice on the F5 ML, I’ll defer to the F5 run line.
*MLB(1u): White Sox/Tigers F5 UNDER 4.5(-115)–6:10 PM CT
Tigers SP Rony Garcia has been subject mostly to the bullpen early in his career, but he’s been quite effective as a starter. He held the Yankees to just 2 runs through 5 innings(in Yankee Stadium) his last time out and holds a very good 1.00 WHIP in 28 innings this season. While the White Sox put up 23 runs over the weekend, virtually all of their success came against left-handed pitching. Against righties this season, the White Sox rank just 28th in OPS and are still without Tim Anderson, Eloy Jiminez, and likely Yasmani Grandal. Righty Jon Gray was able to dominate the White Sox yesterday, so I expect Garcia to be effective in this one. White Sox SP Lance Lynn will make his season debut today looking to build off a sub-3.00 ERA season. Lynn threw a complete-game shutout in his second start of 2021, so it shouldn’t take him long to get integrated into the swing of the season. The Tigers lineup has been atrocious all season(last in OPS vs righties) and followed that up by scoring just 4 runs in their weekend series against the Blue Jays. Considering Comerica Park does hitters no favors, I don’t see why this number is not set at 4; if I had to guess, the White Sox are being priced for their overall offensive numbers and not accounting for how poor they’ve been vs right-handed pitching. In any case, I see a lot of value on this F5 Under.
*MLB(0.62u): Pirates ML(+160) @ Cardinals–6:45 PM CT
The Cardinals might’ve taken 2 out of 3 vs Cincinnati over the weekend, but they just as easily could have lost that series if not for a heroic comeback on Saturday. Today, they’ll send rookie Zack Thompson to the hill to make just his 2nd career start. To put it simply, I’m very low on Thompson; he allowed 5 or more runs 3 separate times in the minors this year and held a brutal 7.06 ERA and 1.84 WHIP across 19 starts in AAA last year. The Pirates are not a great offense, but they remained competitive in their weekend series in Atlanta despite facing the likes of Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright. There is some major blowup potential for Thompson entering tonight’s start. While Pirates SP Mitch Keller’s numbers won’t wow you, he has allowed 2 ER or less in each of his past 4 starts. The Cardinals crush left-handed pitching but are a very beatable lineup against righties(18th in OPS vs righties this year). I price these bullpens as equals, although I think the Pirates poor middle-relief arms have weighed down some of their overall numbers. The Pirates have a road sweep at the Dodgers to their name this year; facing a vulnerable young arm, they are more than capable of winning this game. I will sprinkle on the full game ML to win a full unit.
*MLB(1u): Mariners SERIES(-115) vs Twins
My series play on the Rays didn’t work out over the weekend, but I still remain adamant in my belief that the Twins are going to struggle in the month of June. At basically a pick’em price, I will fire on the Mariners to win this series.
