A 2-0 day in MLB is supplemented by a pedestrian response from Boston and therefore, 3/4 of our bets are losers in Game five. Yay!
Boston averaged 35% from the floor in the 1st, 2nd, and 4th quarters and went 0-12 from beyond the arc in the 1st half. Steph Curry made zero 3 pointers for the first time in 233 games, so that’s all you need to know about the first half over not hitting, too.
ANYWHO, annoying, but we move on! Treading lightly for Game 6 at this juncture but it’s likely we’ll have more plays before Thursday.
NBA Finals, Game 6:
Celtics 1H -2, 1.5 units
Well, here I go playing on Boston again. Are we stupid? Maybe. But Golden State has been consistently flawed on the road when they can close out a series, and you’d think the Celtics would light many a fire under their collective asses before game 6 so they don’t see the same results as Monday. Again, the aggressiveness I expected in game 5 just didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean Boston is done. Ime Udoka has his kids fighting and clawing and playing resiliently all year. I think Boston takes it early by margin – don’t be surprised when that title wave of scoring comes from Dub City in the 3rd, though. If the Celtics start slow and let Golden State take another big early lead, this series is over and they know it.
MLB Picks:
Braves first five -1 (-120), to win 1 unit
Braves/Nationals over 9 (-120), to win 1 unit
This gives us an out if Atlanta is only up by 1 at the end of five innings, but there’s little to no reason for us to believe that the Braves won’t spank the Nationals once again. Fried has been solid all season and newcomer Jackson Tetreault, coming up from the minors, is very unlikely to contain Atlanta’s bats in humid DC. Good luck, Nats.
Orioles/Jays over 9 (-110), to win 2 units
We’ve seen Kikuchi blow his command over and over again and Toronto just doesn’t take him out. The Jays looked realllllly comfortable killin’ the Orioles’ pitches last night – this feels like a sure-fire over. The recipe is intact.
Guardians/Rockies over 10.5 (-120), to win 1 unit
Everyone falters at Coors Field and it’ll be a beautiful day in Denver for some big slugs. Bieber is elite, Senzatela is not, and the environment and spot favors both offenses. We like that Colorado has been on the road almost 2 weeks, too – their hitters are considerably more skilled in Denver.
Foreign Basketball Picks: (added another over * because the total dropped – can’t say I’m an ace at predicting German basketball line movement just yet…)
Alba Berlin +5.5, 1 unit and
Alba Berlin vs. Bayern Munich over 158, 1 unit
Alba Berlin vs. Bayern Munich over 155, 1 unit *
This is another rematch between two of the best teams in the German pro league and we got pretty lucky that the last game didn’t go over. Scoring REALLY slowed down in the 4th but live lines had this game projected to finish around 165. We think it gets closer to that total today and Alba Berlin, while they won last time and they’re on the road today, is still the better team. +5.5 is a little too many points.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
