Premiums, 6.15

Well, here I go playing on the Celtics again. Are we stupid? Maybe. But Golden State has been consistently flawed on the road when they can close out a series, and you’d think the Celtics would light many a fire under their collective asses before game 6 so they don’t see the same results as Monday. Again, the aggressiveness I expected in game 5 just didn’t happen, but that doesn’t mean Boston is done. Ime Udoka has his kids fighting and clawing and playing resiliently all year. I think Boston takes it early by margin – don’t be surprised when that title wave of scoring comes from Dub City in the 3rd, though. If the Celtics start slow and let Golden State take another big early lead, this series is over and they know it.

Added the total over for the many reasons we stated on the podcast. Curry never hit a 3 in game five, the Celtics struggled mightily from the field, and the pace and pressure of each team’s aggressive offense still led Monday’s contest to nearly 200 points. Even with slight adjustments and improvement in game six, I would expect this total to eclipse 210 – I have it at 216.

Alex Faedo played like an ace in his last start but let’s be real, that was against the Pirates. Faedo has been solid all year but in all likelihood, he’s due for some vulnerable pitching. The Sox are sending out Vince Velazquez, and if past performance is any indication, he’ll permit quite a few opportunities for Chicago. I think this goes over 10 runs.

I’d just like to call attention to this line. It’s one of those totals that feels like bait. Industry heads might say there’s no such thing as bait – the books make lines, you pick one side, we move on. Whatever. Castillo has shown strong improvements this year and Gallen has been fantastic. But this line is juiced to the over and whenever my dumbass tries to take value on a total like this going under, it doesn’t hit. Not putting money on it, but I BET it goes over.

Firstly, few pitchers are throwing as confidently as McClanahan and Nestor, so to expect a slower start today is quite square but still worth the value in my opinion. Getting the hook over 3 certainly helps. As far as our NYY bet, is there a better wager in baseball right now? If the Yankees keep playing like this, they’ll keep the Dodgers honest throughout the season as they compete for the #1 team in MLB. Whenever Cortes pitches, I tend to not care who NYY is opposing, especially at home. Great opportunity for + money.