I enjoyed a solid 3-1, +1.85u Tuesday and am back at it today with my highest volume card of the season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1.5u): Rockies F5 ML(-115) vs Guardians–7:40 PM CT
This is just my 3rd multiunit play of the season(we’re 2-0 so far), and I couldn’t think of a more appropriate spot to make this designation. Rockies SP Austin Gomber is not a world-beater by any means and has certainly had his struggles on the road, but in Coors Field, the lefty has been a completely different pitcher. Last year, Gomber held a 2.09 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in Coors Field; if you take away a blowup start against the Braves, he’s continued to have success in this role this season. The Guardians are one of the worst offenses in the league against left-handed pitching(29th in OPS vs LHP) and managed just 4 runs in this dream environment last night. On the other side of things, this Rockies offense mashes left-handed pitching at Coors Field(.817 OPS). The Guardians will send rookie Konnor Pilkington to the hill today; while there are certain pitchers who acclimate well to this unique environment, I’m not going to assume a rookie will do so. Pilkington also has an unimpressive 1.54 WHIP, has struggled mightily with walks, and allowed 4 runs to the lowly Athletics in his last start. The stars align here to make Rockies F5 ML my 3rd multi-unit play of the season!
*MLB(1u): Tigers ML(-113) vs White Sox–12:10 PM CT
When you see one of the worst teams in the league as a favorite against a clearly better team, the oddsmakers are giving you a clear hint. It’s not hard for me to bet against the White Sox right now given how many guys they are without; Jake Burger and Liam Hendriks joined Tim Anderson, Eloy Jiminez, and Yasmani Grandal on the IL after getting hurt yesterday. The Tigers will have the pitching advantage not only to start the game but also in their bullpen. Tigers SP Alex Faedo has looked extremely impressive through 7 starts this season, going at least 5 innings in every start and allowing no more than 2 ER in any start. At the very least, Faedo is going to keep the Tigers in this game, although I think that might be selling him a bit short. The White Sox have shown subtle improvements against righties recently, but it’s still a role they’ve struggled in all season. White Sox SP Vince Velasquez is not a major league caliber starter, which is not too hard to see when you see his 5.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. I’m not even going to begin to try to find bright spots in this Tigers lineup, because there are none. However, the Tigers have a far deeper and more effective bullpen than the White Sox, and I think they’re able to get just enough production offensively to allow their pitching staff some wiggle room. Sign me up for probably the most telling line of the day.
*MLB(1u): Braves TT OVER 5.5(-110) @ Nationals–6:05 PM CT
With the Phillies starting to come back down to earth, the Braves now hold the crown for “Hottest Team in Baseball”. Atlanta is a perfect 13-0 in the month of June, and in that stretch, they are averaging over 7 runs/game. They should have every chance to keep that trend rolling tonight facing off against a putrid set of arms. Nationals SP Erick Fedde holds an ugly set of numbers(4.87 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) and is walking a career high 4.4 batters per 9 innings. The Braves have destroyed Fedde in the past, so much so that 5 different projected starters for tonight have an OPS above 1.000 in their matchups with Fedde. After the subpar righty, Dave Martinez will have to rely on a bullpen that is a) not fresh, and b) ineffective(23rd in bullpen WHIP). Regular season baseball is a game of streaks; with the run the Braves are on right now combined with the little resistance they’ll face on the mound tonight, I expect another great showing from this offense.
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays TT OVER 5.5(-115) vs Orioles–6:07 PM CT
You can usually find some positive in a player, but I really struggle to when looking at Orioles SP Bruce Zimmermann. In addition to holding a 5.52 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, Zimmermann has allowed at least 10 hits in each of his last 2 starts; that gets worse when you learn he faced the lowly Royals and Guardians. Toronto didn’t start off the season hot offensively, but here in the month of June, they are back to former selves, averaging just under 7 runs/game in this recent stretch. Zimmermann has a road ERA near 7.00 over the last 2 seasons, and he failed to make it out of the first inning in his lone start in Toronto. The back-end of the Orioles bullpen is better than you might imagine, but I don’t expect any of those guys to factor into this game given it should be a comfortable Jays victory. I’ve also noticed that, when they’re swinging the bats well, the Jays do a good job of not throwing at-bats away when the game is already decided. 5.5 for the home team is a bit of a premium, but it’s more than warranted considering this matchup.
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 TT UNDER 1.5(-120) vs Brewers–6:10 PM CT
I gushed over the Mets offense yesterday(rightfully so), but I think they’re simply overmatched facing off against Corbin Burnes today. Burnes is the best pitcher in baseball by my estimation, and his most consistent role has actually been on the road; he held a 1.94 ERA and 0.79 WHIP away from home last year and has seemingly identical numbers here in 2022. While Burnes struggled a bit in his last outing against the Phillies, I think that speaks much more to the fact that the Phillies were in the best current form in the league at that time. The Mets were completely shut down by Yu Darvish last week in San Diego; with that cut-fastball, Burnes is a younger and better version of Darvish at this point in time. This is a very situational play, but given I get priced out of backing Burnes pretty routinely, this was too good for me to pass up.
