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The Minnesota Twins and the Seattle Mariners are taking on each other in a battle of two AL teams. The Mariners are towards the bottom of the AL West standings and are 28-34 overall this season with a record of 16-25 when playing as the underdog. The Twins are at the top of their division and are 36-28 overall with a 24-12 record as a favorite this season. Sonny Gray will be starting for the Twins today and he owns a 3-1 record with a 1.04 WHIP, .233 opponent BA, and 3.48 xFIP on the road this season. Gray has been excellent of late as he has posted a 1.42 ERA, .183 opponent wOBA, 27.1% K rate, 0.68 WHIP and 1.30 FIP while only walking 1 batter in his last 3 starts. The Mariners will send out lefty Marco Gonzales, who owns 3.71 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .240 BABIP and 5.29 FIP at home this season while giving up 6 home runs and 12 walks with 14 earned runs in 34 innings pitched at home. You gotta think that Gonzales will continue to regress against a good offense today. A Twins offense that ranks in the top 10 in wOBA and wRC+ in the past week and month.  Seattle’s offense at home scores quite a few more runs than they do on the road. The Mariners average 4.48 runs per home game compared to 3.77 on the road while the Twins score nearly 5 runs per game on the road. Both of these bullpens are below average and rank in the bottom third of the MLB in ERA, FIP, HR/9, and BB% in the past 30 days. I expect Sonny Gray to limit this Seattle lineup and the Twins to at least 5 runs themselves to take us over this total. Take MIN (-131) and over 7.5 runs.
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