The AFC South – The AFC South was the bottom feeders of football divisions in 2021 thanks mainly to Jacksonville who had a headcase for a coach, and the Houston Texans who had a coach that couldn’t coach, or even understand some the rules and strategies of the game. It also didn’t help that the Colts were very injured on defense/skill positions for the majority of the season. The Titans were able to capitalize on all of this and secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Unfortunately it didn’t work out too well when the Bengals came into their house and beat them in the divisional round of the playoffs. The NFC South plays AFC West which is hard and they play the NFC East which is medium. Let’s see what we can expect out of the worst division in football.
1. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -140
2021 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.92
Schedule: Easy – at large @ New England, vs Pittsburgh, @ Minnesota
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: G Mark Glowinski, QB Carson Wentz, S George Odum, DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, G Chris Reed, RB Marlon Mack, WR Zach Pascal, LT Eric Fisher, WR TY Hilton, CB Xavier Rhodes
Key additions: QB Matt Ryan, CB Stephon Gilmore, QB Nick Foles, CB Brandon Facyson, FS Rodney McLeod,
Whom they drafted: WR Alec Pierce, TE Jelani Woods, T Bernhard Raimann, S Nick Cross and a bunch of bums
Summary: I must say, that I thought my Colts over 9.5 wins last year was the closest thing to a lock when they had two games left vs the Raiders and @ Jacksonville. The funny thing about this team is that everyone said that that season win total was toast when they started their season injured, and at about week 13, everyone jumped on the over. Anyways, I have to put some blame on Frank Reich for blowing their last two games and I also have to blame Carson Wentz who hasn’t showed much since his first two seasons in Philadelphia. I must say that I really like the bold move that they made in trading him to get Matt Ryan. I mean, why not? Now my issue with Matt Ryan is that he hasn’t been all that good himself since his super bowl year with Kyle Shanahan as his coordinator, but I still have to give them an upgrade here at the quarterback position. The Colts also had to shed some good talent to make cap room on the roster. The Colts Pythag was about 10 last year and that is what the market is telling you. I am right on that number but I also think that their schedule is tricky.
My Number: 9.96
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: 3.5
2. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 9 juiced to under -120
2021 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 10.33
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Buffalo, @ Green Bay, vs Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: WR AJ Brown, G Roger Saffold, G David Quessenberry, LB Rashaan Evans, TE Anthony Firsker, WR Julio Jones, CB Jenoris Jenkins, RT Kendall Lamm
Key additions: TE Austin Hooper, T Jamarco Jones, S AJ Moore
Key Draft Picks: WR Treylon Burks, CB Roger McCreary, T Nicholas Petit Frere, QB Malik Willis, RB Hassan Haskins, TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, WR Kyler Phillips
Summary: I have to say that the playoff game that was lost to the Bengals at home this year was from the result from a pretty bad game plan by coach Vrabel. The Titans got away from what they do best from using misdirection and allowing Tannehill to get some chunks of yards on his feet when needed instead of trying to throw 50/50 balls through needle holes in the seam. Now it is easy to see that the Titans were quite fortunate playing in a bad division, and they are kind of like the Bengals in the fact that they beat the best teams in the NFL and lost to the worst. That Houston game was last year was just putrid. I think that Tennessee’s Pythagorean win total at 10.33 helps demonstrate that. Looking at 2022, the Titans had to trade maybe their best player in AJ Brown to the Eagles to get a number 1 draft choice. What do they go with? A wide receiver in Traylon Burks. Now Ryan Tannehill hated this move and it is easy to see why, but to be completely honest, this ended up being a great long term move for this team. AJ Brown and his agent demanded to be the highest paid wide receiver, and when you are a run first team like the Titans, you can’t afford to blow your whole franchise on a guy who will be double covered. I also like their pick in Traylon Burks from Arkansas who has NFL size and break away speed to take it to the house. Another good thing for Tennessee is that they had bad fumble luck last year being -5 in the random luck stat. We have to adjust some for that as well. This team did lose a decent amount in free agency but I don’t think it is extreme and I remain luke-warm on this team like I was at the end of last year. Let’s just hope that coach Mike Vrabel has learned from some of his errors.
My Number: 9.34
Action: Lean over
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: 1.75
3. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 6 juiced to the over – 120
2021 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 4.2
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs New York Jets, vs Baltimore, @ Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Urban Meyer, ILB Myles Jack, G Andrew Norwell, WR DJ Chark, G AJ Cann, OLB Damien Wilson, DE Arden Key, DT Taven Bryan, RB Carlos Hyde, CB Nevin Lawson
Key additions: Coach Doug Peterson, OC Press Taylor, WR Christian Kirk, G Brandon Sherff, LB Foyesade Oluokun, CB Darious Williams, DT Foley Fatukasi, WR Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram, DE Arden Key
Key Draft Picks: Edge Travon Walker, LB Devin Lloyd, C Luke Fortner, and a bunch of dudes
Summary: Welp, Urban Meyer lasted about half the season last year and now he is free it hit up some college Kegger parties, and grind with as many chicks and he pleases. Super Bowl Champion Doug Peterson is taking this team over and while it is certainly an upgrade. I still think that he was overrated and much of his success at the eagles was thanks to Frank Reich who just happens to be coaching in his division. This will make some interesting story lines this year. I do like the fact that he hired former assistant Press Taylor who also was under his and Frank Reich’s system over the past 8 years or so. I think when looking at the Jaguars, you can’t ignore the talent on this team and they did have two big wins last year vs the Bills and we can’t forget how they finished the year taking the Colts out of the playoffs. The Jaguars were also a bit injured coming into the season and had some bad fumble luck. I have to think that this team will certainly be improved from last year, and might shock some people.
My Number: 6.6
Action – Lean Over
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: -6
4. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 4.5 juiced to the under – 120
2021 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 4.01
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Chicago, @ Miami, vs Cleveland
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach David Culley, S Justin Reid, OLB Jake Martin, QB Tyrod Taylor, S AJ Moore, RT Marcus Cannon, RB David Johnson
Key additions: CB Steve Nelson, G AJ Cann, DE Mario Addison, OLB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, DE Rasheem Green, QB Kyle Allen and a bunch of bums.
Key Draft Picks: CB Derek Stingley Jr, G Kenyon Green, S Jalen Pitre, WR John Metchie III, LB Christian Harris and some dudes
Summary: Doesn’t it feel like Kyle Allen just goes from crap team to crap team? Never forget last year under Coach David Culley that the Texans were facing a 3rd and 15, they ran a play and picked up 13 yards setting up a 4th and 2, but the Browns were called for offsides and the Texans had a choose between 4th and 2, or 3rd and 10. What did they do? They chose 4th and 2 then proceeded to punt the ball away. My head seriously hurt after that. Now the big problem this year is that they hired Lovie Smith whom I thought couldn’t get another power five college coach job much less in the NFL! As a Bears fan, some of us realized that it wasn’t Lovie who was responsible for their super bowl appearance. Anyways, this team has decided to not take a shot at a quarterback and it is probably a good idea because next year’s class looks amazing and getting the 1st pick of the draft would be outstanding. Maybe there is some reason why Lovie was hired there in the 1st place? I do not like this team’s draft and they have a very hard schedule ahead of them. This team would be doing themselves a favor not win this year and my number is 3.13 wins. My problem is that if they are at four wins by the last game of the season, the Colts may have clinched the division by then and won’t be able to help their playoff seeding like the Bengals last year. They could bench their starters while the Jaguars easily get to five. No play.
My Number: 3.13 wins
Action: Strong Lean Under
Houston Texans Power Rating: -8.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
