The AFC East – Was so close to making the super bowl last year, yet just couldn’t finish the job on defense. This will be one of the better divisions in football looking at the way that the Patriots made the playoffs with their new stud quarterback Mack Jones, and the way the Dolphins rebounded. The Jets are still the Jets until proven otherwise, but they have to make a step forward at some point with all of the talent that they have been drafting over the past few years. The AFC East plays the AFC North and the NFC North which should be considered medium. Let’s see where these teams line up.
1. Buffalo Bills –
Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -140
2021 Wins: 11
Pythagorean Wins: 12.92
Schedule: Medium – at large @ LA Rams, vs Tennessee and @ Kansas City
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: OC Brian Daboll, DT Harrison Phillips, CB Levi Wallace, DE Mario Addison, G John Feliciano, QB Mitch Trubisky, WR Cole Beasley, DT Star Lotulelei, WR Emmanuel Sanders
Key additions: QB Case Keenum, TE OJ Howard, Edge Von Miller, DT DaQuan Jones, DT Tim Settle, G Roger Saffold, DE Jordan Phillips, WR Jamison Crowder, G David Quessenberry,
Key Draft Picks: CB Kaiir Elam, RB James Cook, LB Terrel Bernard, WR Khalil Shakir and a bunch of dudes
Summary: The Bills are the super bowl favorite this year after such a close game with the Chiefs and an overtime thriller. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier took the brunt of the blame for playing too much prevent in that game vs the Chiefs allowing that field goal for overtime. He might be a head coach somewhere had that not happened. Instead, Brian Daboll left the team to become a head coach while his protégé Ken Dorsey got promoted. I am slightly pessimistic here, but this offense should be able to pick up where it left off. I noticed that Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders isn’t signed, and that is also a red flag to me being how these two receivers are in big game situations. Coach Doug McDermott is at least still there, but I have to think that their road won’t be all that easy this year. 12 wins is a lot to get to and you can only afford to lose five games. Splitting with Miami and New England is quite possible while losing @ LA Rams and @ Kansas City, and that wouldn’t set them up for much success in that over. I have a strong lean under but will hunt for a 12.
My Number: 10.46
Action – Lean Under
Power Rating: 7
2. New England Patriots –
Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the over -115
2021 Wins: 10
Pythagorean Wins: 12.12
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Indianapolis, @ Arizona, @ Las Vegas
Schedule Last Year: Medium
Key losses: CB JC Jackson, C Ted Karras, ILB Kyle Van Noy, ILB Dona Hightower, Edge Jamie Collins
Key additions: WR DeVante Parker, WR Ty Montgomery, S Jabrill Peppers, CB Terrance Mitchell
Key Draft Picks: G Cole Strange, WR Tyquan Thornton, CB Marcus Jones and a bunch of prayers
Summary: The Patriots surprised many last year getting 10 nice wins having all of those question marks. More importantly, quarterback Mack Jones has turned out to be a franchise player. In saying that, the Patriots really didn’t do much in the offseason to replace a lot of guys that they are losing. I was almost certain that the Patriots would select a linebacker to replace one of the three studs that look to be leaving this year, but instead they decided to get strange, and draft a guy that wasn’t projected to be picked in the top 100. I am livid over this move, and I think that the Patriots will take a big hit on defense this year. I do like what they got in Wide Receiver DeVante Parker on the cheap, and if he can stay healthy, he can be great. The offensive line should also be ok this year along with the playmaking tight ends that they paid for last year in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. I have the Patriots at a solid 9 wins so no play for me.
My Number: 9.06 wins
Summary: No Play
New England Patriots Power Rating: 3
3. Miami Dolphins –
Vegas win total: 9 juiced to the under -125
Pythagorean Wins: 7.6
2021 Wins: 9
Schedule: Medium Hard – at large vs Houston, @ San Francisco, @ LA Chargers
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Brian Flores, QB Jacoby Brissett, T Jesse Davis,
Key additions: Coach Mike McDaniel, WR Tyreek Hill, LT Terron Armstead, WR Cedrick Wilson, C Conner Williams, RB Chase Edmonds, CB Keion Green, QB Teddy Bridgewater, OLB Melvin Ingram, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Sony Michel
Whom they drafted: LB Channing Tindall, and that’s about it
Summary: Looking at what this team did in free agency and the offseason, they are certainly going for it! The Fish didn’t even care about their draft picks this year. Word on the street is that Tua looks fantastic, but how much can we trust a bunch of pumped up beat writers as well as the media who loves big name wide receivers? This Dolphins team started out horrible last year, and then finally figured out how to run a defense after their week 8 buffalo loss and turned a 1-7 start into a 9-8 season. The comeback was absolutely unreal, but missing the playoffs wasn’t quite good enough for them to keep coach Brian Flores and we all know what happened after that. Anyways, I do like the hire in Mike McDaniel, but only because I am such a Kyle Shanahan kind of guy. This doesn’t mean that he is Kyle Shanahan, so I have to be careful in my assessments. One thing that I can say is that they had a very easy schedule last year and that will change for 2022. For a 3rd place schedule, I really think that Miami got the shaft this year. Tow of their three at large opponents are beasts in the 49ers and the Chargers. That’s tough for a 3rd place schedule. Miami’s first three at large games are bunched up one after another starting week 12, and their NFC North opponents have the Vikings and Packers at home with the Bears and Lions on the road. I also have to notice that they over-achieved last year having a Pythagorean number of 7.6 wins. I am going to reward the Dolphins for such a nice offseason, but I have to factor in the schedule and the fact that they were pretty healthy last year.
My Number: 9.77
Summary: No lean
Miami Dolphins Power rating: .5
4. New York Jets –
Vegas win total: 5.5 juiced to the over -165
Pythagorean Wins: 4.6
2021 Wins: 4
Schedule: Medium Hard – @ Denver, vs Jacksonville, @ Seattle
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: DT Foley Fatukasi, FS Marcus Maye, RT Morgan Moses, WR Jamison Crowder
Key additions: G Laken Tomlinson, S DJ Reed, TE CJ Uzomah, TE Tyler Conklin, S Jordan Whitehead, OLB Jake Martin, DE Solomon Thomas, K Greg Zuerlein
Whom they drafted: CB Ahmad Sauce Gardner, WR Garrett Wilson, Edge Jermaine Johnson II, RB Breece Hall, TE Jeremy Ruckert
Summary: According to many analysts, the Jets had the best draft in the NFL this year. They also had a decent free agency, but that doesn’t mean they can change the culture of this organization just yet. I think that the book is still out on Zach Wilson who ranked 31st in QB EPA plus Completion Percentage over expectation. Zach seems small for the NFL and I predict another injury. The schedule shows to be a bit hard being in this division and all, but I have to think that there might be some light at the end of the tunnel. I think that is is weird that they have to play the whole AFC North the 1st four games of their schedule. if they can win just one of those games, It could be a good sign for the rest of the season. I honestly have no clue what to think of them year two with Mike LeFleur as their OC and I will probably not bet on or against them until I know more.
My Number: 5.8
Action – Lean under
New York Jets Power Rating: -6.75
