The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to win their first game of the Stanley Cup Finals tonight. In Game 1 they were able to force OT but, in Game 2 they were outplayed in every aspect losing 7-0. I’ll break down Game 3 of the Stanley Cup along with some game, team, and player props.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche (Series: COL 2-0)
Side Line Movement (COL: -110/ TBL: -110)
The Colorado Avalanche closed as home favorites in the first two games. We now head back to Tampa, where Game 3 has opened as a pick em’. Throughout the entire playoffs at home, this is the shortest line that the Tampa Bay Lightning have been offered at. From a Colorado perspective, this is the shortest line that they’ve been offered at throughout the entire post season.
Total Line Movement (6.0: +100/-120)
The total for the first two games was set at 6 and it went over in both matchups. For Game 3, the total hasn’t moved at all. In Games 1 and 2 the total was juiced to the over but, in Game 3 that’s reversed.
Game 3 Breakdown
The Avalanche head to Tampa Bay with a 2-0 series lead, after dominating then Lightning in Game 2 winning, 7-0. So far, the Avalanche have yet to lose a game on the road so, Tampa Bay will have their hands full in Game 3 as they cannot afford to go down 3-0. Good news for the Bolts is that have a 7-1 home record this post season.
Turning to Game 3, the Lightning need to make several adjustments. The main adjustment being how can they limit Colorado offensively. To be fair, it may not be possible, but we’ve seen Jon Cooper in past playoffs be able make the necessary adjustments in order to win. The second is how to spark their own offense. Colorado has done a great job of limiting shots, specifically high danger shots, against Kuemper in the first two games. In the first two games of this series they’ve only been able to record 23 and 16 shots on goal. If they want to have a chance, that number needs to be around 27/28. Darcy Kuemper is not Andrei Vasilevskiy and when we look at his home and away splits this post season, there’s a noticeable difference. In Game 3, I think we really see Tampa Bay try to push the pace offensively.
For Colorado, they just need to keep doing exactly what they’ve done in the first two games of this series. They’ve held Tampa Bay in check offensively, limited the shots on Kuemper, and have created scoring chances off turnovers.
TBL Injuries: B. Point (QUES- Leg)
COL Injuries: N. Kadri (DOUBT- Thumb), A. Burakovsky (QUES- Hand)
Team Prop Breakdown
TB Lightning Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-165/+135)
Game 1 Team Total: 3
Game 2 Team Total: 0
The Tampa Bay Lightning have only gone over this number in once in this series. At home this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 3.63 goals for per game. On the road this post season, the Colorado Avalanche average 2.86 goals against per game.
COL Avalanche Team Total Goals 2.5 including OT (-150/+120)
Game 1 Team Total: 4
Game 2 Team Total: 7
The Colorado Avalanche have gone over this number in both Game 1 and Game 2. On the road this post season they average 5.14 goals for per game. At home this post season, the Tampa Bay Lightning average 2.00 goals against per game.
Player Prop Breakdown – Skaters (courtesy of Linemate.io)
Mikko Rantanen 0.5 Points (-245/+190)
Game 1 Points: 2 (2 Assists)
Game 2 Points: 3 (3 Assists)
Mikko Rantanen has gone over this total in each of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over that number in four of five.
Nikita Kucherov 1.5 Points (+175/-225)
Game 1 Points: 1 (1 Assist)
Game 2 Points: 0
Nikita Kucherov has gone under this total in each of his last five games. However, he has recorded over 1.5 points in two of his last five home games.
Gabriel Landeskog 2.5 Shots on Goal (-175/+135)
Game 1 SOG: 2
Game 2 SOG: 3
Gabriel Landeskog has recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five road games, he has gone over that number in four of five. In the two regular season matchups, he recorded over 2.5 shots in one of those games.
Ondrej Palat 1.5 Shots on Goal (-170/+135)
Game 1 SOG: 3
Game 2 SOG: 0
Ondrej Palat has recorded over 1.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games. In his last five home games, he’s hit as this same rate.
Player Prop Breakdown – Goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy 32.5 Saves (-105/-120)
Game 1 Saves: 34
Game 2 Saves: 23
In Vasilevskiy’s last five games, he has only recorded more than 32.5 saves twice. At home this post season, the Bolts give up an average of 33.00 shots against. On the road this post season, the Avalanche average 38.26 shots on goal for.
Darcy Kuemper 27.5 Saves (-110/-110)
Game 1 Saves: 20
Game 2 Saves: 16
Kuemper’s has not gone over this number in his last six starts. On the road this post season, the Avalanche give up an average of 28.00 shots against. At home this post season, the Bolts average 34.13 shots on goal for.
Picks
- [1u] Colorado Avalanche/ Tampa Bay Lightning Under 6.0 (-120) – DraftKings
- As the series shifts to Tampa Bay, I think we start to see more of a defensive play style. The over has hit in the first two games but, I really like the Under tonight. Most books have the total set at 6.0 juiced to the under with a few other books having tonight’s total listed at 5.5. If Tampa Bay want’s to get into this series, they’ll have to be better defensively. They’ve proven that they can shut teams down at home and looking at Vasilevskiy’s splits he’s played much better at Amalie Arena this post season.
- [0.50u] Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+135) – DraftKings
- For the first time in the 2022 Playoffs Nikita Kucherov was held without a single shot on goal. This happened twice during the regular season and in the following games, he recorded over 4 shots on goal. We know Tampa Bay is desperate right now and they’ll need him to step up tonight in order for them to have a shot.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
