953 Cubs F5 ML (+105)* at Pirates/ F5 OV 4.5 (+100)*
Pirates are facing the Cubs for the 10th time (5-4 SU series) this season but the first in a month since it has been speculated that the ball may have changed. We’re seeing some reverse line movement with the majority of money on the over, yet the total is down from 8.5 to 8. Some sharp money has come on the under and it makes sense with this series going 1-7-1 O/U. Cubs’ SP Kilian will be starting for the 3rd time this season and had a bad last outing against the Padres, walking 5 with 0 K’s in 4 innings, after a decent debut vs the Cardinals. Brubaker’s numbers aren’t great as he can give up runs in spurts but has given the Pirates 5 or more innings of work in 9 of his 13 starts.
I understand the total coming down here with the Pirates batting the worst vs RHP and 28th in runs scored. But we do have the ML moving toward the Cubs and both team totals juiced to the over at 3.5. So I’ll look for the Cubs to start well and the F5 to get over the higher 4.5 total at +100 in case we see a blow up from either of these pitchers as the F5 has gone 8-1 O/U in this series. Brubaker has faced the Cubs twice now where they put up runs on him both times and Cubs are batting 13th vs RHP. Average F5 total in this series just over 7 runs and those games were mostly before the speculated ball change.
