Mornin’, team! Things weren’t looking bad in MLB for us last night, and then it got real bad, like 5 runs in extra innings bad to ruin an even day (TOR/CHW). What are ya gonna do? Here are a few options:
- Burn your TV
- Burn your laptop
- Stop betting
- Call the MLB hotline and tell them their sport sucks
- Or we could just carry the fuck on
Of course I wouldn’t blame you if you chose 1-4. I’ll choose 5, for now. Onto our plays!
MLB Picks:
Mets ML (again, +117), 1.5 units to win 1.74 units
Carrasco is 4-1 against winning teams and while Houston looks like another heavyweight contender this year, they’ve feasted on low-level teams in their division and I’m not buying that they’re just going to waltz through this series at home. The Mets don’t often put up only 2 runs when they get 8 hits like they did Tuesday – this is a better spot to play on NYM and we’re taking them for + money.
Blue Jays/White Sox over 9, 1.1 units to win 1
This total is steamed up for a reason, Stripling has been struggling, and Giolito doesn’t look like himself this year. Top offenses do their thing again in an early revenge spot for a stumbling Toronto team that NEEDS their bats to be more consistent.
Dodgers -1.5 (-105) and Angels -1.5 (-115), both to win 1.5 units
The Reds can’t score and I damn sure don’t trust Luis Castillo like others have started to. He’ll have to prove his command over a longer stretch, and Tyler Anderson (2.82 ERA, 0.81 HR/9 innings) has been a stud. Cincinnati’s offense shouldn’t be able to keep up. In the late game, this is a great setup with Ohtani on the mound against one of the worst defenses in MLB (KC is 27th in opponent batting average), and the Angels look to rebound and prevent another long losing slide. We like both of these west teams by margin today.
NHL Picks:
Game 4 under 6, 1.1 units to win 1
If any game will fly under, it’s this one. Both teams got annihilated by the other’s explosive offense in two consecutive games, and now it’s just about a mentality. The human mind can only handle so many “mentalities,” and we have to assume that both teams will switch from ultra-aggressive to, “Hey, we can’t allow them to do that again!” This is psychology, and while it’s not as consistent in a sport like hockey, this is the championship series and both teams have shown a ton of scoring prowess. Time to show some defense.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
France – LNB Pro A
Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. AS Monaco, 1H over 78 (-115), 1.15 units to win 1
The first team is sometimes named ASVEL Basket for short, in case you can’t find this game at your sportsbook. When Lyon-V has a down game or a loss, they tend to play with offensive-fire in the next contest, which usually means points. Yesterday’s contest went at a molasses-pace in the first 2 quarters of play. We think this one will pick up and become more of an offensive-showcase; that’s the pattern we see, anyway.
Chinese Taipei
Hsinchu Lioneers vs. Fubon Braves under 207 (-120), 1.2 units to win 1
From the research we conducted, the Braves rarely score over 100 points in a contest and these two teams get very defensive when they face off. Three previous games went way under the total and this one’s a bit of a rubber match after the Braves snagged a win in the last showdown. We’ll go under.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris
