Coming off a 1-1 Wednesday, I sit at +1.01u on the week and +11.7u over the last 45 days. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for today looking to take some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals/Brewers F5 OVER 5(-110)–1:10 PM CT
While each of these offenses can have their struggles, both will be facing very vulnerable arms this afternoon. Brewers SP Jason Alexander has made 4 big league starts in his rookie season, and he’s been anything but impressive. Alexander holds an atrocious WHIP at 1.70 and has recorded just 8 strikeouts in 22.1 IP. While I like the Cardinals’ lineup better against lefties, they are still more than capable of beating up on a vulnerable righty arms; we saw this just a few days ago when they faced Chi Chi Gonzalez. Cardinals SP Dakota Hudson somehow holds an ERA at 3.31, but that does not tell the full story. If Hudson’s 1.29 WHIP isn’t proof that a sub-4.00 ERA is not sustainable, consider that the righty is striking out just 5 batters per 9 innings while walking over 4 per 9 innings. As a kicker, Hudson has been far worse on the road this year, especially in the walks department. The Brewers offense has feasted on these type of righties all season long and just tagged Adam Wainwright for 4 runs last night. I really don’t like the makeup of either one of these starters, and I think each offense is equipped to take advantage this afternoon.
*MLB(0.69u): Padres -1.5(+145) vs Phillies–8:40 PM CT
Padres SP Joe Musgrove is currently 2nd in NL Cy Young odds, and for good reason; the righty has accumulated a 1.59 ERA and 0.92 WHIP this year. Since joining the Padres, Musgrove has been masterful in Petco Park, and he’ll get a more favorable matchup than you might think tonight. While the Phillies went on an absolute tear in recent weeks, they have fallen back down to earth here over the past few days. They got swept earlier this week against the lowly Rangers, have lost 3 straight games in total, and have scored just 7 runs across their last 4 games. Petco Park is another tough hitting environment, and this seems to be a group that stays mired in the ups-and-downs of the MLB season. The Padres have been carried by their pitching for virtually this whole season, but the offense showed promise in their sweep of the D-Backs this week. Looking at yesterday, the Friars racked up 16 hits and 10 runs, chasing lefty Madison Bumgarner after just 4 innings. They’ll face another vulnerable lefty in Ranger Suarez today. Suarez’s 2021 seems to have been just a fluke; in 13 starts this season, the lefty holds a 4.43 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. Specifically, Suarez has begun to struggle with his command, walking 4 batters per 9 innings this year and 7 batters across his last 2 starts. Even with Manny Machado not in the lineup, I like what I’ve seen the Padres bats this week. What ultimately gets me on this run-line is the massive bullpen discrepancy; the Padres rank T-2nd in bullpen WHIP this season, while the Phillies rank 28th in that same category. Considering the caliber of arms San Diego will run out there tonight, +145 seems too good to pass up. It will remain a sprinkle because runs don’t flow too easily from the Padres offense, but I do think San Diego wins this game comfortably.
