A 1-2 Friday is not how we wanted to start out the weekend, but I still remain +10.76u over the last 47 days. I’m rolling with a lone play for today trusting an arm that has treated us well all season. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays TT UNDER 3.5(-115) @ Brewers–3:10 PM CT
It’s Corbin Burnes Day in Milwaukee! I’m 5-0 backing Burnes this season, and we’re going right back to the well this afternoon. The dominant righty has followed up an NL Cy Young season by recording a 2.31 ERA and 0.92 WHIP here in 2022, but I’d argue he’s pitched even better than those numbers indicate. The only spot Burnes has faltered in this season is when he faces the same lineup for the second time in the span of 2 weeks; when you take those 2 instances out of the equation, Burnes has allowed 2 ER or less in 11 of his 12 starts and 1 ER or less in 8 of those starts. It’s not hard to see that Burnes is still the best pitcher in baseball. I understand that the Blue Jays can put up runs in bunches offensively, but this is the first time many of their bats will be facing Burnes in their career. The Jays are at a point where they will dominate virtually any mediocre arm, but they are not immune to being held down by the premier arms in this league. We saw them struggle with the bats for most of last weekend’s series with the Yankees, and they won’t just have to worry about Burnes in this one. While Burnes has gone 7 innings on six separate occasions this season, we have insurance in the back-end of the Brewers bullpen. The 7th-8th-9th inning trio of Brad Boxberger(2.28 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), Devin Williams(2.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), and Josh Hader(0.83 ERA, 0.60 WHIP) is one of the best in baseball and a set of arms I’ll trust against any lineup. I’ve had success backing Burnes each of the past 2 seasons; I’ll trust him to bring his A game in today’s game.
