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Wrigley Field continues to welcome the Cincinnati Reds as they face the hometown Chicago Cubs tonight under the lights. The Reds will send out rookie right-hander Hunter Greene while the Cubs will counter with lefty Justin Steele. Some could say Greene has had a rude awakening in the big leagues, owning a 5.66 ERA and 5.71 FIP in 70 innings pitched this season. Although the rookie has be striking guys out at a high clip, his Achilles heel is allowing base runners and giving up homeruns. Greene ranks dead last with a 2.57 HR/9 out of 113 starters that have pitched at least 50 innings this season. The Cubbies starter owns a 1.33 WHIP, .268 BABIP and 4.35 xFIP at home this season. After these 2 pitchers give way to their bullpens, look for a couple more runs to be scored as both pens rank in the bottom third of the league in WHIP, FIP and runs scored over the past month. Specifically, the Cubs bullpen has allowed 91 runs this month! The second highest is the Marlins with 68. Cincy ranks 5th worst. The Reds have been in the middle of the pack offensively all season and of late but could take advantage of Chicago’s mediocre defense. The Cubs come into this one ranked in the bottom third in errors but, offensively, own a top 10 wOBA over the past week and month. This shows potential to be a double digit total. Take Over 7.5
The White Sox of Chicago are in Anaheim to face the Los Angeles Angels in a rubber match at Angel Stadium tonight. In the first 2 games of the series, they have averaged 11 runs per game. Tonight, the White Sox will go with right hander Michael Kopech to hone the mound. He owns a 3.21 ERA, .310 opponent wOBA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.29 HR/9, .271 BABIP and 4.21 FIP (exactly 1 run higher than his ERA). Does that mean regression in around the corner? Maybe…or did it already start? In his past 5 starts, Kopech has posted a 5.23 ERA, .325 opponent wOBA, 1.31 WHIP and 5.51 FIP while still owning a very lucky .236 BABIP. I expect the negative regression to continue tonight. The Angels are going with last year’s MVP, Shohei Ohtani. The righty has been good at home this season, posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.85 and 2.65 FIP but does have a very lucky .238 BABIP. In 12 starts this season, Ohtani has only gotten past the 6th inning three times and thats what we are banking on in this one. Why? because the bullpens can give up a good amount of runs in this one, especially since the pitching has been taxed in the past 2 games. In the past month, both pens rank 21st and 22nd in ERA and 21st and 23rd in opponent batting average. Unlike last season, the ChiSox are scoring more on the road (4.33) than they are at home (4.11) while the Angels are the opposite scoring 4.37 runs at home compared to 3.97 on the road. If the White Sox bats can force Ohtani out of this game before the 7th inning, this total will get close to 9. Take Over 7.5 runs
