Happy 4th of July everyone! We are at week 3 of our summer NFL division breakdown. Starting to turn the heat up as we dive into the hard hitting and action packed AFC North.
Remember if you want all of my NFL insight and picks for the 2022-23 NFL season, be sure to subscribe to my Premium picks. Finished 5th place in Circa with my main man @farleybets, along with a solid 58% winning NFL betting record last season!
Reminder my premium packages are up and can be found at this link:
Message me directly @Bohbohbets on twitter to receive a special package deal for the ENTIRE NFL and Premier League soccer seasons. That’s a subscription from August to May!!!!
AFC North
Current Odds to win division, per Betonline.ag
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing Back: Patrick Ricard Bringing in: Michael Pierce, Marcus Williams, and Morgan Moses
2022 Draft Picks: Round 1: No. 14 – Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame, Round 1: No. 25 – Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa, Round 2: No. 45 – David Ojabo, LB, Michigan, Round 3: No. 76 – Travis Jones, DT, UConn, Round 4: No. 110 (from NYG) – Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota, Round 4: No. 119 – Jalyn Armour-Davis, CB, Alabama, Round 4: No. 128 – Charlie Kolar, TE, Iowa State, Round 4: No. 130 (from BUF) – Jordan Stout, P, Penn State,Round 4: No. 139 – IsaiahLikely, TE, Coastal Carolina, Round 4: No. 141 – Damarion Williams, CB, Houston, Round 6: No. 196 (from MIA) – Tyler Badie, RB, Missouri
Strength of Schedule: 23rd hardest per CBSsports
During the 2021 NFL season the Baltimore Ravens were one of the most injury riddled teams in the league. Not only was it a cumulative amount of players, but quality as well. Their backfield was decimated before the regular season started with JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards going down. Pro Bowl talent Marcus Peter not seeing the field in 2021, while Ronnie Stanley made his appearance for 1 game. And Oh yeah, starting QB Lamar Jackson out the last 4 games to end their 2021 season at 8-9. That is just to name a few and it still came down to their last regular season game for them to have a shot at the playoffs.
Point is, Ravens are good. Even through all the injuries and adversity this team still competed and did it at a high level. Not too often will you see a team finish dead last in a division and then be the division’s favorite the following season. Reason being, 2021 was an anomaly. 2022 Ravens will be healthy, hungry, and ready to take back their division. In Baltimore fashion Ravens made a point to bolster their Defense bringing in DT Michael Pierce and S Marcus Williams. As always the talk will be regarding Lamar and his arm talent to take this team to the next level. Ravens are a playoff team this year and I have high expectations for this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder in 2022. Getting great value at +140 for a team that in my opinion, really only has to compete against the Bengals for the division. Easier said than done…
Projected Record: 12-5
Cincinnati Bengals +190:
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing Back: Eli Apple, B.J. Hill, and Josh Tupou Bringing in: La’el Collins, Hayden Hurst, Alex Cappa, and Ted Karras,
2022 Draft Picks: Round 1: No. 31– Daxton Hill, S, Michigan, Round 2: No. 60 – Cam Taylor-Britt, S, Nebraska, Round 3: No. 95 – Zachary Carter, DT, Florida, Round 4: No. 136 – Cordell Volson, OL, North Dakota State, Round 5: No. 166 – Tycen Anderson, S, Toledo, Round 7: No. 252 – Jeffrey Gunter, DE, Coastal Carolina
Strength of Schedule: 3rd hardest per CBSsports
It is so easy to root for Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. Dude has poise, swagger, and only put his team on his back to take them to the SUPER BOWL in 2021. Simply put he is a pure stud. Bengals won the AFC North last season finishing at 10-7, but “got hot at the right time” with their impressive play off run knocking off the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs to make the ship. We all know the result of that game, but Joe Burrow solidified in 2021 that he is a top QB in this league and the Bengals are certainly in conversations as contenders for years to come.
Since Joe Burrow’s ACL injury that ended his rookie season prematurely in 2020, the talk has always been about the Bengals offensive line play. Are they able to give him the protection he needs to be a sustainable QB in the league or was 2020 an insight for things to come. In 2021 their O Line improved drastically from 2020, but later in the season showed its vulnerability and especially lack of depth. This offseason they made huge strides and focus to bolster their offensive line play. Bringing in 3 veterans in OT La’el Collins, OG Alex Cappa, and C Ted Karras. The Bengals made the right move here, because Joe Burrow being sacked 70 times in 20 games is not the stats you want to see from your franchise QB.
The stage is set for the Bengals and their fan base. They got a taste of winning and the expectations are Super Bowl or bust now. As we know the AFC in general is a gauntlet, but this team has already proven once they are up for the task. As for the AFC North, the only real contender they have to worry about is now a healthy Ravens team.
Projected Record: 10-7
Cleveland Browns +325:
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing Back: Anthony Walker Bringing in: Deshaun Watson (trade), Jakeem Grant Sr., Taven Bryan, Josh Dobbs.
2022 Draft Picks: Round 3: No. 68 – Martin Emerson, CB, Mississippi State, Round 3: No. 78 – Alex Wright, DE, UAB, Round 3: No. 99 – David Bell, WR, Purdue, Round 4: No. 108 – Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma, Round 4: No. 124 – CadeYork, K, LSU, Round 5: No. 156 – Jerome Ford, RB, Cincinnati, Round 6: No. 202 – Michael Woods II, WR, Oklahoma, Round 7: No. 223 (– Isaiah Thomas, DE, Oklahoma, Round 7: No. 246 – Dawson Deaton, C, Texas Tech
Strength of Schedule: Tied 17th hardest per CBSsports
Browns made a massive blockbuster trade bringing in the controversial Deshaun Watson and making him the highest paid QB in the league based on guaranteed money of 230 million dollars. With hearings still happening and a real possibility of suspensions, it is looking extremely bleak for Deshaun Watson to even step on the field this season. Relationships with previous starter Baker Mayfield are completely gone as they look to move the QB out of Cleveland. Thus most likely bringing us to veteran Jacoby Brissett as the Browns 2022 season starter at QB. It is almost laughable how bad all the moves the Browns made to put themselves in this position. Are we surprised? Nope. “Browns gon Browns.”
With all of the outside noise and negative attention Browns have been receiving this offseason. There is absolutely no way you could even consider making a play on them at this point. Hypothetically let’s say Watson is out this entire year putting him on pace to play for 2023. You now have a franchise QB you guaranteed 230 million to that hasn’t played in 2 years. I think the Browns may have just sealed their fate to be awful for a long long time.
Projected Record: 5-12
Pittsburgh Steelers +800:
Key Free Agency Additions: Bringing back: Terrell Edmunds, Montravious Adams, Chukwuma Okorafor, and Ahkello Witherspoon Bringing in: Mitchell Trubisky, Myles Jack, James Daniels, Gunner Olszewski, Levi Wallace, and Mason Cole
2022 Draft Picks: Round 1: No. 20 – Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh, Round 2: No. 52 – George Pickens, WR, Georgia, Round 3: No. 84 – DeMarvin Leal, DE, Texas A&M, Round 4: No. 138 – Calvin AustinIII, WR, Memphis, Round 6: No. 208 – Connor Heyward, FB, Michigan State,Round 7: No. 225 – Mark Robinson, LB, Ole Miss, Round 7: No. 241 – Chris Oladokun, QB, South Dakota State
Strength of Schedule: Tied 12th hardest per CBSsports
Steelers used their first round pick in the hopes of finding their future star at QB to replace veteran Big Ben, by taking Pitt stand out Kenny Pickett 20th overall. All the talk has been regarding his hand size and at what point he will be taking the starting position over. I say let’s pump the brakes and not over look what I believe to be an under the radar pickup in Mitchell Trubisky.
CMP% YDS TDS INTS Rating
|
64.1
|
10,652
|
64
|
38
|
87.0
|
Career Record: 29-21
|
67.8
|
14,539
|
104
|
36
|
104.5
|
Career Record: 28-21
Here we have the career stats of a QB everyone wants to write off as a bust and one that currently has the highest guaranteed money contract in the league, and won’t play. Yes, circling back and comparing Trubisky and Watson side by side. There are a ton of other factors that play into Wins and Losses, defensive play, garbage time stats, etc. The point is I am not sold that Trubisky is an absolute bust, it wasn’t too long ago he was a ‘double donk’ Fg away from moving on to the second round of the playoffs with the Bears. Much like the Texans not exactly executing in the head coaching realm, Matt Nagy wasn’t exactly stellar for the Bears either. After being behind Josh Allen and under now Giants head coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo I love the aspect that Trubisky actually may have a lot of upside especially coming into a winning organization like the Pittsburgh Steelers. Let’s not forget Tomlin has never had a losing season in his 15 year tenure in Pittsburgh. They may not be my pick to win the division, but they are going to be a team I am looking to hammer this year ATS.
Projected Record: 9-8
Conclusion: Ravens +140
It is going to be a battle solely between the Bengals and the Ravens for the AFC North division. No surprise there as it’s pretty clear I think the Browns will be a disaster and Pittsburgh is rebuilding. I give the nod to the ravens having a much easier strength of schedule compared to the Bengals who will have their hands full more times than not. With both top teams getting + value there is always the option to play both sides, as I am confident Browns and Steelers will not be an option in 2022.
