Coming off a bit of a layoff for the MLB All Star break, we’re ready to get things up and rolling again! Don’t forget to subscribe to my premium plays here on TheOddsBreakers as well. Enough of that, let’s get to the meat and potatoes of tonight’s slate.
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets
The Padres are going to send Yu Darvish to the mound in this first road game post break. In 48 innings of work he’s managed a 5.25 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 4.08 xFIP, .310 wOBA, and .306 BABIP. He’s also giving up home runs on 11.5% of fly balls. He’s also given up 3 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts.
The Mets are turning the ball over to Max Scherzer. He’s been nothing short of spectacular all year. He currently holds a 2.45 home ERA, 3.42 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, .249 wOBA, and .228 BABIP. Scherzer has given up 2 runs or less in his last 5 starts. He missed all of June, but that didn’t seem to hold him back at all in July.
The Mets hitters are also fairing much better against Darvish than the Padres are against Scherzer. I like this spot for the Mets, and the pitching matchup a lot. Making it a multi-unit play.
Take the Mets F5 -.5 -125 2U
Los Angeles Angels @ Atlanta Braves
Shohei Ohtani leads the Angels into Atlanta. He’s been great all year on his own right. He’s given up 1 or fewer runs in his last 6 starts. The last time he’s given up more than that you have to go all the way back to June 2 when he gave up 4 runs to Boston. His 2.79 road ERA, 2.65 FIP, 2.88 xFIP, and .273 wOBA are all fantastic. His BABIP is a little suspect at .304, but I think that says more about his defense than his pitching.
Charlie Morton on the other hand has had a very up and down year. He’s been brilliant at times, but also has struggled at others. A 4.31 home ERA, 4.30 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, .305 wOBA, and .257 BABIP all point to room for positive regression.
Even without Mike Trout, I like the Angels to keep it close here. The Braves haven’t seen much of Ohtani, but the person that has, Matt Olson, has only hit .077 in 13 at bats. The Angels haven’t exactly seen much of Morton either, but they are batting better.
I can’t trust Morton against any lineup at this point. There’s a good chance he has a good game here against a mediocre lineup, but there’s also a chance he bombs it. On the other hand, Ohtani has been great all year against many lineups. I trust him more to have a good game here.
Take the Angels F5 +0.5 -145 1U
