We have arrived at the first few days of training camp which means real NFL games are just around the corner. I’ve put together 9 preview articles that will break down the season win predictions for every team in football, and then look to the playoffs and what teams have value in the futures. I have gone through the entire schedule game by game and have found some great values on season win totals. I’ll highlight my top plays along the way and get you my picks division by division. In these preview articles last year, I nailed the Rams to win the Super Bowl so I had a great plus money hedge on it, and walked away a big time winner on Super Bowl Sunday.
My all time tracked record in the NFL currently sits at 117-88-1 with a 16.9% ROI as we had a huge 2021. You can find all my packages available here including an all inclusive football package covering college and the NFL for $600 for the whole season.
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AFC South
2021 Records
Tennessee 12-5/ Indianapolis 9-8/ Houston 4-13/ Jacksonville 3-14
Indianapolis – Carson Wentz Sucks. Matt Ryan should be an upgrade, but he hasn’t exactly been sharp the last few years, but his weapons also have been underwhelming or suspended. Jonathan Taylor should get his behind an offensive line with two pro bowlers, but I also worry about Left Tackle Matt Pryor taking over for a departed Eric Fisher. At receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is the top option, with a bunch of unproven talent behind him. On defense I think they made upgrades across the board with the signings of Stephen Gilmore to be a shut down corner and snagging pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue from Vegas. I think Gus Bradley taking over at DC with his aggressive style should factor well in Indy. Vegas Win Projection: 9.5 Heavily Juiced over -190
Tennessee – Getting the #1 Seed is special now in the NFL as it gets you the only Bye in the playoffs. Not as special is losing that first game at home after the Bye like the Titans. I also think they were the team that overachieved the most in 2021 winning 12 games with only a +65 Point differential. They were 17th in YPG and 12th YPG Allowed on defense. Not what you think of as a #1 Seed. That being said this is a veteran team, and if they have a healthy Derek Henry for a full season those offensive numbers will go up. Trading AJ Brown takes away the top option at receiver and they are counting on draft pick Treylon Burks to fill that role. They also signed Robert Woods who should be decent as a #2 if healthy. Ryan Tannenhill is probably playing for his future this year so I do expect him to thrive. The Titans resigned Harold Landry who took off in 2021, but didn’t add any key pieces and I would expect a similar year to 2021 on defense. Vegas Win Projection: 9 Juiced Under -125
Houston – Houston is a very young team, and their season will depend on whether or not Davis Mills is going to become a quality NFL QB in 2022. If he doesn’t, they’ll be near the top of the board next season where the QB talent will be much greater in the draft than this year. Hint: He Won’t take a next step. This team was dead last on offense and unless they develop some sort of running game to improve on their 83.6 YPG in 2021 they will be in deep trouble again. Hint #2: They Won’t be able to run the ball, but #15 overall draft pick Kenyon Green could be a future pro-bowler at Guard. On defense they took Singletary #3 overall at CB and he could be a shut down type player, but the rest of the roster looks rough. Hint #3: The defense will suck again in 2022, and this team is ready to really start the rebuild with all the extra draft picks from Watson really having an effect next year allowing them to take a QB and another top tier talent in the draft. Vegas Win Projection: 4.5 Juiced Under to -130
Jacksonville – The Urban Meyer saga being complete, will Trevor Lawrence take a step forward in 2022? Doug Pederson should be able to coax the best out of him as he did early for Carson Wentz. Lots of pundits are high on the Jags to really make a leap this year, I am not one of them. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram simply aren’t the answer to improving an offense that only averaged 305+ YPG in 2021. Travis Etienne will hopefully be healthy and we will see what he brings to the table. The O-Line was a concern last year and will be once again in 2022. Even with Lawrence’s mobility he was sacked 32 times. Without improvement up front this offense will still struggle. On defense the team should improve with #1 overall pick Travon Walker, and they went defense on 5 of 7 draft picks. Darious Williams, signed from the Rams will start at corner and is an immediate upgrade there. I think the D keeps Jacksonville in more games than last year, but when your point differential on the season is over 200 to the bad side, it takes a lot of improvement to start picking up more wins. I think they are one more draft away from really having a shot at more wins and contending. Vegas Win Projection: 6 Juiced over at -125
2022 Projections
Indianapolis 11-6
Tennessee 10-7
Houston 4-13
Jacksonville 4-13
AFC South Action:
Indianapolis – Lean Over. The Juice is what is keeping me off this play, that and cross division games vs the AFC West. If this gets to 10 at Plus Money I might make a play.
Tennessee – No Plays. Their variable schedule is brutal with the Packers, Bengals and Bills. Too much variance here.
Houston – Lean Under. I think they are gonna go full tank mode.
Jacksonville – 1 Unit on Jacksonville Under 6 Wins. They get Houston twice, Jets, Lions and NFC East, but also the AFC West. Could they find a way to get to 6? Maybe. But I don’t see 7 wins here so I’ll play the under and I think at worst I push.
