Lost our CFL Pick but a nice 3-0 night in the WNBA. Can’t sleep, looking at lines, and executing bets at 1am. Love to see it
Happy Friday! Oh and tell your acquaintances about my premium picks, please! LFG!
WNBA Picks (12-8, +3.85 units):
Fever +14 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a bad spot for Las Vegas. Coming 2 days after a Commissioner’s Cup win over the WNBA’s reigning champs, the Aces fly to Indiana to play in probably their most meaningless game of the season. Their place in the postseason is all but sealed, and they have a game against Indiana again on Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the Aces rest some of their harder-working starters and although they have more than enough talent to still win, even at 80% effort or so, the Fever would love to knock the conference’s #1 team off their pedestal. This will be a big game for Indiana and a very sleepy game, in all likelihood, for the Aces. Win or not, this is the side to play.
Sky -10 (-110), to win 1.5 units
On the other end of the spectrum, there’s a reason why this line is so massive: the Chicago Sky must be absolutely furious with their recent results. I was watching some old Monday Night Raw episodes last night when I couldn’t sleep for some cheap late-night entertainment. It was a 2003 episode, Goldberg joined the WWE and someone tried to run over him that night in the show storyline. Needless to say, ol’ Goldberg was pissed and he was ready to take it out on his opponent, Christian. Christian got absolutely mutilated in a steel cage, and even though that’s fake-ass wrestling, it’s also a good story on human nature. The Sky lost their last matchup against the Liberty and just got upset by the Aces in the CC. Time to apply revenge on the world and the Liberty are within range. All Sky for me. I think it’s a blowout.
CFL Picks (8-6, +2.85 units):
Calgary -1 (+100), to win 1 unit (Saturday)
I think this game means much more to Calgary. The Stampeders came up short 2 weeks ago against the CFL-best Blue Bombers, but now is their 2nd chance, at home, for revenge and I think they step up. Winnipeg looked pedestrian last week, probably because of this lookahead rivalry, but there’s little to like about their lackluster energy coming out of a lucky cover and win against the Elks in Week 6. The Stampeders have an electric offense when they’re in-rhythm, and they have the motivation and scheduling spot advantage Saturday. That’s enough for me to pull the trigger!
Ottawa at Toronto over 47 (-105), to win 1.5 units (Sunday)
The Ottawa Redblacks gave a valiant effort last week against Montreal, putting up 33 points in a game with little defense. Toronto has come into their own offensively, torching Saskatchewan in two straight weeks, scoring 61 total points in those matchups. Ottawa is worse on defense in almost every statistical category; they allow a ton of first downs and only the Elks are worse in opponent yards per play. Toronto is at home and should be able to continue dominating on offense, and I like the trajectory of Ottawa’s offense, one that fights and shows capability against mediocre defenses. Over for me and I think it’ll only rise.
UFC 277 Picks (4-9, +2.02 units):
Pena/Nunes under 2.5 rounds (-115), to win 2 units
If I were abiding by the “Kelly Criterion,” I might bet a lot more than this because the formula tells me to spend way more than just 2 units here. I think this has a 60% chance of hitting, which I realize is probably conflated by my own bias, but the Criterion tells me to put 14 units on this. Interesting. In any case, I don’t like over-exposing myself in UFC — solo sports are so difficult to predict because of the sudden nature of 1-1 competition. One knockout, one slip, and you’re done. We learned the hard way betting on Aspinall last weekend. Anyway, these two chicks DO NOT like each other and I expect Amanda Nunes, who’s equal parts calculated and equal parts aggressive in these spots, to come out focused and make contact immediately. She’s on a mission, she wants her title back, and even better for this bet: Julianna Pena isn’t scared. Like, at all. I think these two warriors take it to each other early and often and someone goes night night.
Kai-Kara France by KO/TKO or DQ (+475), to win 4.75 units
I’ll keep this short – I think Brandon Moreno isn’t taking Kai-Kara France seriously enough. Moreno is a long-time killer in the flyweight division, deserving of his moniker, “the Assassin.” But France has legitimate KO power and if Moreno allows himself to get too close to France, which I think he will b/c of some veteran overconfidence, the young buck could put the former to champ to sleep in a millisecond. This line should be, in my opinion, under +300. I’ll take my chances with some great value here.
Derrick Lewis in Round 1 (+230), to win 1.15 units
THESE are the fights where Lewis does his best work. The freaks out there — Jon Jones, Daniel Cormier, Francis Ngannou — Derrick Lewis doesn’t fare well in those battles. Pavlovich is a big SOB and he has the reach advantage, but Lewis has a way of luring his opponents inside for a nice little crack. And that’s often all it takes. Pavlovich has some good fights under his belt, but this is a big step up in competition, The Black Beast has seen it all and I can’t imagine he’ll take his time – a confident Lewis ends it early.
More UFC bets coming
