Our WNBA record sits at 3-4 heading into a full slate of games on Tuesday.
Aces/Mystics Under 165.5, 1 unit*
Tonight’s matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and Washington Mystics features the top-ranked offense in the league going up against the top-ranked defense. This is the third and final meeting between the two teams with the Mystics owning the 2-0 series lead. Washington’s defense has given nearly every team in the league trouble this year, including the Aces, and we expect more of the same tonight. The total for their previous two games closed at 167.5 and 167 respectively, so the books have adjusted ever so slightly with today’s total sitting just two points below.
The Mystics have played at the second slowest pace in the league over their last five games and own the best defensive rating over that same period. Washington’s last two wins over Vegas were due in large part to their ability to dictate the pace of the game. That allowed their defense to take over and stifle the Aces high-powered offense, something not many teams have been able to do. Having beat the Aces twice already, the Mystics have all the confidence in the world heading into this game. They held Vegas to its lowest scoring output all season in their first meeting and only allowed the Aces to put up 86 points in their second game, which included overtime. If Washington can set the pace and impose their will on the defensive end for a third time, this game has the making of a slow-paced defensive battle.
Liberty 1H -2.5 (DraftKings) or -3 elsewhere, 1 unit*
The LA Sparks come into this matchup with three straight losses and seem to be completely lost on the court. Their last two games have been without starting center Liz Cambage after she quit the team and they’ve looked awful in both those games, losing to Phoenix and Minnesota. After their game against Minnesota on Sunday, the Sparks boarded at 9:50 p.m. PST flight from LA and didn’t land in New York until 6:30 a.m. ET on Monday morning. LA is going to come into this one with tired legs which means their offense will likely be slow to get going. Opponents have jumped on the Sparks early in their previous two matchups and I expect the Liberty to do the same tonight.
New York comes into this game with some momentum after a double-digit win over Phoenix on Sunday. Offensively, Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard are playing some of their best basketball over the last five games as the Liberty look to make a final push for the playoffs. They’re a game back from the Sparks who own the eighth and final playoff spot as of right now.
Tonight’s game is the first of a back-to-back with the Sparks, so I could see LA mailing this one in after a tough travel situation and focusing on getting the win tomorrow and leaving New York with a split. They also have a tough road ahead with this being the first of a four-game road trip for LA. The Liberty are also debuting a pretty sweet new court design tonight thanks to their partnership with X-Box. I expect New York to come out ready to go from the start and jump on the Sparks early. Take the Liberty to cover in the first half.
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*All plays listed are to win that amount.
