WNBA Free Pick – August 4: Mercury vs. Sun

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We had a nice 2-0 night on Tuesday, bringing our WNBA record to 5-4, +1.4 units, here at The Odds Breakers.  

Mercury 1H +6.5, 1 unit*

The Connecticut Sun destroyed the Phoenix Mercury 87-63 on Tuesday night. Thankfully for Diana Taurasi and company, they get another shot at the Sun tonight. Instead of a play on the full game, I really like the Mercury to cover the first half at +6.5. With Tuesday’s loss, Phoenix has dropped out of the eighth and final playoff spot thanks to New York owning the tie-breaker between the two teams. With only five total games left, including tonight’s, the Mercury doesn’t have any time to waste if they want to move back up the standings. The Sun are a much better team, both offensively and defensively, but Phoenix is going to come into this one with plenty of motivation after a poor performance in their last outing. They’re also a team that has responded well after embarrassing double-digit losses, like Tuesday’s.

Another thing working in Phoenix’s favor in the first half is that Connecticut tends to get off to mediocre starts before exploding in the second half. They’re great at making halftime adjustments before putting teams away down the stretch. The Mercury aren’t good enough to keep up with them for a full 40 minutes, but playoff motivation, revenge motivation and Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith leading the charge, they have what it takes to keep the first half close.

More free plays to come. In the meantime, I’d love it if you would give me a follow on Twitter, Instagram, and TikTok.

*All plays listed are to win that amount.