Coming off a 1-1, +0.23u Thursday, I’m rolling with 3 plays looking to start the weekend off with a bang. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals F5 -0.5(-115) vs Brewers–7:15 PM CT
Cardinals SP Jordan Montgomery was a great pickup for St. Louis at the deadline. In his first start as a Red Bird, all Montgomery did was throw 5 shutout innings against the best offense in baseball, and his 1.08 WHIP on the year is impressive. Tonight, Montgomery gets a pretty favorable matchup facing a Brewers lineup that holds a poor 90 wRC+ on the road vs left-handed pitching this season. This is a Brewers offense that pads their stats by feasting on vulnerable arms; tonight simply doesn’t present that opportunity.
Brewers SP Eric Lauer is another talented lefty, but he has been far worse on the road this season. Coming into tonight, Lauer holds a 4.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the road this year. To make matters worse, he now has to face a Cardinals offense that holds a 131 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark this year. This lineup has managed to plate 6 runs off of Lauer in their 2 matchups against him this season.
*MLB(1u): Diamondbacks/Rockies OVER 12(-110)–7:40 PM CT
It’s pretty easy to get on board with a Coors Field over, and that’s even more true when you consider each of these SP’s is making their 2nd straight start against this same opposing lineup.
I’ve faded Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela routinely this year, and for good reason. The righty holds a 1.68 WHIP and is allowing 12.9 hits per 9 innings. His WHIP at Coors Field is 1.72, and this is a much tougher matchup than people think. In the first 10 games here in the month of August, the DBacks have averaged over 5 runs/game. This is quite frankly an underrated lineup.
This is arguably a tougher spot for Diamondbacks SP Zach Davies given his unfamiliarity with Coors Field. While Davies has enjoyed a bounce back season, he is anything but a reliable arm 8 years into his career. He’ll face a Rockies lineup that scored 29 runs in their 3 game set vs the Cardinals and has been marvelous at home this season.
As a kicker, each of these bullpens absolutely stink. The Rockies rank 27th in bullpen WHIP, while the Arizona ‘pen ranks 24th in bullpen WHIP.
*MLB(1u): Angels TT UNDER 3.5(-110) vs Twins–8:38 PM CT
Twins SP Tyler Mahle is an arm that I believe will flourish now that he is out of Cincinnati. Mahle could never adjust to Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly conditions/ballpark, but he has shown signs of being a top-of-the-line arm in his road starts. Mahle held a 2.30 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the road last year; this year, he holds a sub-1.00 WHIP on the road and is allowing just 0.7 HR/9.
With Mike Trout still out, this Angels lineup is simply putrid. Since July 1st, this lineup holds a 75 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching(100 is league average). We have faded this lineup successfully a lot over the past month, and I expect that to continue tonight.
The Twins aren’t the most reliable bullpen, but they do come off an off day, so there should be no restrictions on their best arms. By my estimation, I think you could make an argument this number should be at 2.5.
