The BMW Championship – Preview & Picks

Congrats to everyone as we caught another outright in Will Zalatoris at 28-1. With that win, Zalatoris captured his first career PGA Tour victory. He’s been close many times and finally broke through this week in Memphis. It was not an easy victory as he battled it out with Sepp Straka in three playoff holes.

The field is cut to 70 as we move on from the FedEx St. Jude Invitational to the BMW Championship. This year’s event will be hosted at Wilmington Country Club in Delaware.  Established in 1902, Wilmington Country Club has never hosted a professional golf event before.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: August 18th, 2022 – August 21st, 2022
• Location: Wilmington, Delaware, USA
• Course: Wilmington Country Club (South)
• Course Type: Parkland
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,534 Yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Tyee bentgrass .100″
• Fairways: 007 bentgrass .390″
• Rough: Tall fescue/ bluegrass 4″
• Bunkers: 91
• Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play 4 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 8,100 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 12.5 ft.
• Purse: $15,000,000/ Winners share $2,700,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 2,000
• Field/ Cut: 70 (68) Players| No Cut
• Course Scoring Average:
  • N/A
• Historic Cut Line:
  • N/A

 

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, August 18th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 3 PM – 7 PM
• Round 2: Friday, August 19th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 3 PM – 7 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, August 20th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 12 PM – 3 PM
  • NBC – 3 PM – 6 PM
• Round 4, Sunday, August 21st, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 12 PM – 2 PM
  • NBC – 2 PM – 6 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Mostly Sunny 76 F, 8 mp/h W, 52 % Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Mostly Sunny 78 F, 9 mp/h SSW, 52% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: PM Showers 76 F,10 mp/h ESE, 60% Humidity, 30% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Scattered Thunderstorms 78 F, 9 mp/h SE, 64% Humidity, 40% Chance of Rain

 

FedEx Cup Playoff Format:

The FedEx Cup is a season-long points competition that culminated with the FedEx Cup Playoffs. The FedEx Cup Playoffs is a series of three events that determine the FedEx Cup Champion.

The top 125 players in the season-long standings qualify for the first of three events (The FedEx St. Jude Championship). This is the only event of the three to have a cut after 36 holes. After this event, only the top 70 players will qualify for the next event, the BMW Championship. Following that tournament, the final event of the playoffs takes place, the TOUR Championship.

In the TOUR Championship, only the top 30 players qualify and the points leader in the FedEx Cup will start the event at 10-under par. The No. 2 player will start at 8 under. The No. 3 player starts at 7 under; the No. 4 player starts at 6 under; the No. 5 player starts at 5 under. Players 6-10 start at 4 under; players 11-15 start at 3 under; players 16-20 start at 2 under; players 21-25 start at 1 under; and players 26-30 start at even par.

To see the current FedEx Cup Standings, you can click the following link.

 

Course/ Tournament History:

Wilmington Country Club will play host the BMW Championship this week, its first ever professional event this week.  However, its amateur history goes back over a century as it hosted the 1913 U.S. Women’s Amateur. Along with hosting several amateur events, the 2013 Palmer Cup was held here. The United States team led by Justin Thomas, Daniel Berger, and Patrick Rodgers dominated the European team, 20.5-9.5.

In 1966, Wilmington Country Club hosted two exhibition matches. The first was between Carol Mann and Gary Player. Just two months later, Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus squared off against each other.

The host venue features two courses, a North, and a South course. The North course was designed by Dick Wilson. It’s the shorter of two courses playing just over 6,300 yards. The South course, which will be featured this week, was designed by Robert Trent Jones Sr. I’ll touch on it later but, this week’s layout is not the typical course layout. The front and back nine are intertwined to create this unique layout.

The BMW Championship was awarded to Wilmington Country Club in November 2020. Unfortunately after that, a tornado touched down near the course and downed over 300 trees on the course. Along with the cleanup, the course underwent a major renovation. Every bunker on the course was adjusted, seven new championship tees were added, and the rough was changed to tall fescue from intermediate rough.

Introduced in 2007, the BMW Championship is the penultimate FedEx Cup playoff event. It was held at Cog Hill Golf & Country Club until 2011, except for Bellerive Country Club playing host in 2008. From 2011 to 2017, the event was hosted at three different courses including Crooked Stick Golf Club (’12,’16), Conway Farms Golf Club (’13,’15,’17), and Cherry Hill Country Club (’14). After that, the event has been held at a different course each year.

72-Hole Record: 261, Patrick Cantlay/Bryson DeChambeau (2021 – Caves Valley Golf Club)

18-Hole Record:  59, Jim Furyk (2nd round, 2013 – Conway Farms Golf Club)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Wilmington Country Club designed by Robert Trent Jones, Sr. is a Par 71 that plays 7,534 yards. It features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. The South Course is a classic tree-lined, parklands layout with significant elevation changes on several holes. Last week’s accuracy was more important than distance off the tee, however this week, it reverses. Also, the greens are almost double in size from TPC Southwind. As with most Robert Trent Jones courses, there isn’t much strategy involved. At the FedEx St. Jude Championship, players had to plot their way around the course but this week is much different. As long as the players can hit it long and find a few fairways, they should have success.

The four Par 3’s range between 170 yards and 234 yards. In terms of stats, two of the four Par 3’s range between 200-225 yards.

No. 13 is the shortest Par 3 on the course playing 170 yards. Despite the short yardage, this hole isn’t easy by any means. Players will face a shot to a green that slopes significantly from back right to front left. Water protects the green along the right side while a pair of bunkers are in play on the left.

No. 15 is the longest of Par 3’s playing a little over 230 yards. This tee shot is extremely demanding with a pond coming into play on the front right side. As if that wasn’t enough, bunkers guard the left side of the putting surface. The green itself is divided into three sections; front right, left, and back so depending on the approach shot players can face a difficult putt.

The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 400-450 yards. No. 6 is the shortest listed at 391 with the longest being No. 9, just short of 500 yards.

No. 17 is one of the only Par 4’s on the course where players will lay up taking the fairway bunkers out of play. They’ll face a short approach shot into one of the more difficult greens on the South course. Depending on the pin location, it will be very tough to land one close to the hole.

No. 18 is a dogleg left with a demanding tee shot as three fairway bunkers guard the left side of the fairway. Players will face an uphill approach shot onto a false front green.

The three Par 5’s are No. 3, No. 12, and No. 14. Two of the Par 5’s play over 630 yards making Par 5 efficiency 600-650 yards a stat to check out this week.

No. 3 is the lone Par 5 on the front and the shortest of the three playing 582 yards. It’s a dog-leg right that can be shortened depending on the line players take off the tee. Players will face an uphill approach for their second shot onto an elevated green. Bunkers surround the green in the front so most will try and use the upslope on the back of the green to stop their approach shot.

No. 12 is only one of two holes on the South course that don’t feature fairway bunkers. Players will aim for the left center of the fairway as the landing area slopes from left to right. Depending on their distance off the tee, players will have a decision to make. If they want to take an aggressive approach, they can try to carry the pond in front of the putting surface. Or, players can lay up in front of the pond and hit an easy wedge into the sloped green. This green’s difficult as the front slopes towards the water and is surrounded by bunkers.

No. 14 is the longest of Par 5’s listed just under 650 yards but plays shorter. The longer hitters off the tee are at a particular advantage on this hole as they can catch the speed slope in the middle of the fairway. For the shorter hitters, a fairway bunker comes into play when laying up just 60 yards short of the green. The hole locations this week will most likely be positioned on the left and right wings bringing into play additional bunkers.

In terms of course difficulty this week, it’s relatively unknown. Last year we saw Patrick Cantlay finish 27 under in easy scoring conditions at Caves Valley. However, the year before, Jon Rahm finished 4 under at Olympia Fields. Based on everything I’m seeing, I think the winner comes in around 17-20 under but again, that could be way off. While the course is long on paper, most of the length comes from the Par 3’s and 5’s.

Featured Holes: 12, 13, 14, 17, 18

HOLE	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	OUT
PAR	4	3	5	4	4	4	3	4	4	35
YARDAGE	437	206	582	413	495	391	205	490	496	3,715

HOLE	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	IN
PAR	4	4	5	3	5	3	4	4	4	36
YARDAGE	444	430	634	170	649	234	393	419	446	3,819

 

This week, the course routing will be different from its traditional layout.

Tournament Hole	Traditional South Course Hole
1	10
2	13
3	14
4	15
5	5
6	6
7	7
8	8
9	9
10	1
11	2
12	3
13	4
14	16
15	17
16	11
17	12
18	18

 

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Driving Distance
• Proximity 150-175 Yards
• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
• Par 5 Scoring: 600-650 yards
• 3-Putt Avoidance
• Comparable Course History

 

The Field/ Odds:

We have 68 players in the field out of the possible 70 that have qualified for the second event in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

In terms of odds, pre-tournament long-shots haven’t had much success in this event outside Keegan Bradley (140-1) in 2018 at Aronimink Golf Club. The last three winners have all had odds of 25-1 or shorter.

Rory McIlroy (+1000), is the odds-on favorite to win the BMW Championship this week. He last won this event in 2012 when it was hosted at Wentworth Club in Surrey, England. Rory’s played in eleven BMW Championships with five top 10 finishes during that span including his victory in 2012. In last week’s FedEx St. Jude Invitational he struggled missing the cut. Before that, he had finished inside the top 20 in his last eight starts on Tour.

Jon Rahm (+1200), is coming off a T5 finish at TPC Sawgrass. By no means has Rahm had a great year, winning only once (Mexico Open). Despite his lack of wins, Rahm has seven top 10’s in 17 starts and has only missed a cut once during that span (Fortinet Championship). He won the BMW Championship in 2020 at Olympia Fields Country Club. In his career, he’s played in this event five times with four top 10 finishes.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400), won the BMW Championship last year at Caves Valley Country Club. He’s played in five BMW Championships in his career finishing T9/T55/2/T12/1. Last week he finished T57 shooting over par in the final two rounds. Before that, he had finished T14 or better in his previous six starts.

Tony Finau (+1400), has been the hottest golfer on Tour as of late. He won the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic in back-to-back weeks and followed it up with a T5 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He’s played in the BMW Championship seven times before with four top 10 finishes. Last year at Caves Valley Country Club he finished T15.

Justin Thomas (+1600), won the BMW Championship back in 2019 at Medinah Country Club. He’s played in this event seven times before finishing T13/T32/T47/T12/1/T25/T22. JT’s lone win on Tour this season was at the PGA Championship. Last week at TPC Southwind he finished T13.

 

Previous Winners in the field (BMW Championship); Patrick Cantlay (’21), Jon Rahm (’20),  Justin Thomas (’19), Keegan Bradley (’18), Marc Leishman (’17), Billy Horschel (’14), Rory McIlroy (’12)

Notable Withdraws: Cameron Smith (Hip Injury), Tommy Fleetwood (Personal)

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Previous Winners/ Scores (BMW Championship):

• 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) – Caves Valley Country Club
  • Price: 25-1
• 2020: Jon Rahm (-4) – Olympia Fields Country Club (North)
  • Price: 10-1
• 2019: Justin Thomas (-25) – Medinah Country Club’s No. 3 course
  • Price: 16-1
• 2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) – Aronimink Golf Club
  • Price: 140-1
• 2017: Marc Leishman (-23) – Conway Farms Golf Club
  • Price: 45-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Justin Thomas (+1600) – BetMGM
  • Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

Justin Thomas is coming off a strong Sunday at the FedEx St. Jude Championship shooting 4-under. He finished T13 in last weeks event after struggling over seas in the Genesis Scottish Open and The Open Championship. His lone win this season was at the PGA Championship. In 2019, Justin Thomas won the BMW Championship at Medinah Country Club.

This course sets up well for Justin Thomas given his ability off the tee and ball-striking. As always, the main issue for JT is his play on the green. He’s currently 104th in SG: Putting and lost strokes last week. If he can putt this week at Wilmington CC he should do very well. The last three events where he’s gained strokes on the green he’s finished 3/1/T5.

• Will Zalatoris (+1600) – FanDuel
  • Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

We’ve seen it this year twice so far of players winning back-to-back weeks so who’s to say Will Zalatoris won’t do the same this week? While his odds aren’t what they were last week, I am still willing to back him this week.

Coming into last week he was trending towards a win based off his strokes gained and previous three finishes. He’s long off the tee and ranks inside the top 11 in every strokes gained category besides one, putting. We saw how emotional he was just making that par putt on 18 to eventually force a playoff. He finally shattered that narrative around his inability to make a big putt. In the past two tournaments, he’s gained strokes on the green and I believe he uses that newfound confidence to propel himself to another victory this week.

• Max Homa (+5500) – Bet365
  • Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units

Max Homa has two wins on Tour this season including the Fortinet Championship and Wells Fargo Championship. Following that victory at Quail Hollow, he’s only missed one cut in his last eight events.

Last week at TPC Southwind, he finished T42 with three sub-70 rounds. He gained strokes in every category besides approach. His iron play is usually one of the best parts of his game but he hasn’t been great as of late losing strokes in that category in his last four events. Despite that, he’s been excelling in every other area of his game so I’m hoping he can figure out his irons this week. If he can do that, he has everything needed to win this week.

Just missed Outrights: Jon Rahm (+1400 – DK), Tony Finau (+1600 – Pointsbet), Sam Burns (+2500 – DK)

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.15 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Cameron Young (+100) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units

Cam Young is another guy that fits the course profile for Wilmington Country Club. Last week he finished T31 at TPC Southwind despite the course not suiting his game. He’s been in good form as of late finishing T2 at the Rocket Mortgage classic and 2nd at The Open Championship. With Will Zalatoris capturing the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, Cam Young has now won the most money on Tour this season without recording a win.

The distance at Wilmington CC shouldn’t affect Cam Young at all as he ranks 4th in Driving Distance. He ranks 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green. His iron play is inconsistent ranking 78th in SG: Approach and 75th in SG: Around the Green. In his last three events, he’s gained strokes on approach and has gained strokes around the green in two of his last three starts.

• Joaquin Niemann (+135) – Pointsbet
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.35 Units

Joaquin Niemann won his second PGA Tour event this year at The Genesis Invitational. Since then he’s only finished inside the top 10 in one other event, the Memorial Tournament. As of late, he’s been playing some better golf finishing T16/T53/T13 in his last three tournaments.

Niemann’s distance off the tee should provide him with a slight advantage over the field this week. He ranks 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 23rd in SG: Approach. The main issue for Niemann is his putting where he ranks 113th in strokes gained. His putting performance directly correlates with his finishing position. In the last five events that he’s gained strokes putting, he hasn’t finished worse than T25. If he can figure out the flat stick this week, he should be able to finish inside the top 20.

• Cameron Davis (+175) – FanDuel
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units

Following the John Deere Classic where he finished T8, Cam Davis hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in his last four events. At TPC Southwind last week he finished T13, gaining strokes in every category.

Wilmington Country Club should suit him well this week especially given his distance off the tee. He ranks well in nearly every key category this week with his short game and putting is the only outliers. However, he’s gained strokes around the green in each of his last three starts on Tour. In terms of putting, he did gain strokes last week and barely lost strokes at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 3M Open. Even when he did lose strokes on the green, he still managed to finish T14 and T16.

• Taylor Pendrith (+220) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units

Last week we saw Taylor Pendrith struggle at TPC Southwind finishing 68th. To be fair, that course did not suit him at all. Before that, he was in good form finishing T13/T13/T11/T2/T13 in his last five starts. This is the first time that he’s made the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so he’s never played in this event before.

Off the tee, he’s one of the longest players ranking 11th in Driving Distance and 12th in strokes gained. On the long par 5’s, he can take a more aggressive line limiting his approach shots. However, the issue for Taylor Pendrith is once he gets off the tee. The good news is that he’s gained strokes on approach in two of his last three events and around the green in four of his last six. If he can putt even moderately well, he should do well at Wilmington Country Club.

Just missed T20 Placements: Shane Lowry (+130 – FD), Aaron Wise (+160 – FD)

Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 4.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I like to risk 2.00 Units on T20 Placements and 2.00 Units on T40 Placements. However, the odds for T40 Placements this week are awful, so I’ll be allocating those units to T20 Placements.

 

Total Risk on The BMW Championship: 5.15 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.