Coming off a 1-1 start to the week, I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to break out. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cubs/Nationals OVER 8.5(-115)–6:05 PM CT
I am definitely fading each of these pitchers/bullpens more than I am backing each of these offenses, but with that said, this number shouldn’t be below 9.
Nationals SP Patrick Corbin has been laughably bad for 3 years running now and is one of the easiest “auto-fades” in baseball. Corbin holds an ERA north of 7.00 and a WHIP at 1.82; in 23 starts, Corbin has allowed over 13 hits per 9 innings. The Cubs are no juggernaut offensively, but they have plenty of righty power bats that match up nicely with the deadbeat Corbin.
Cubs SP Justin Steele has found success at Wrigley Field this year, but it’s been a completely different story on the road(4.71 ERA, 1.54 WHIP). Not only that, but now Steele faces the tall task of facing this Nats lineup for the second time in the span of a week. This Nationals lineup surprisingly holds a respectable 96 wRC+ vs lefties in their home park since June 1st, and I think they’re more than capable to take advantage of this advantageous spot.
The Nationals hold a bottom 5 bullpen in baseball, while the Cubs will likely join them by year’s end after trading away all their valuable relievers at the Deadline.
*MLB(1u): Twins -1.5(+110) vs Royals–6:40 PM CT
Twins SP Sonny Gray has steady numbers on the year(3.33 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and is set up for a nice bounce back start tonight. The Dodgers roughed up Gray last week(they’re roughing up everybody right now), but now Gray gets to face a Royals lineup that holds just a 91 wRC+ vs righties on the road since June 1st. Gray threw 6 innings of 1 run ball and allowed just 2 baserunners in his lone start against the Royals earlier this year, and I think we see a similar line tonight.
Royals SP Zack Greinke has pitched great at home but has been an unmitigated disaster on the road. In 9 road starts this year, Greinke hols a 7.16 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and is allowing 2.3 HR/9. Do you really think the 38-year old veteran is at a point in his career where he’s going to rework himself and make the proper adjustments? In any case, this is a tough matchup facing a Twins offense that holds a 116 wRC+ vs righties in their home park since June 1st. This lineup tagged Greinke for 5 runs in Minnesota earlier this season; don’t be surprised if we see a repeat tonight.
By nature of the Royals having (by far) the worst bullpen in baseball, the Twins will hold a pretty massive edge in the later innings. We should not be getting plus-money on this.
*MLB(1u): Cardinals TT OVER 4.5(-110) vs Rockies–6:45 PM CT
Since June 1st, the Cardinals hold a 139 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. They faced Rockies SP Kyle Freeland in Colorado last week(and tagged him for 6 ER), making this tough wrap-around spot for Freeland. While Freeland has fared better on the road this year, he’s still allowing well over 1 hit per inning and almost 30% of balls hit 95+ mph. The Red Birds are averaging 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August, and I’m expecting them to tag Freeland once again tonight in a role they’ve excelled in all year.
As an added bonus, the Rockies rank 28th in bullpen WHIP and is a unit I love going against.
