I’m 5-1, +4.2u over the last 2 days, bringing me to 135-125-5, +4.72u on the year. I’m rolling with 4 plays for today looking to keep us on the right side. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(-105) vs Rockies–12:15 PM CT
I’ve been on St. Louis in both games of this series(cashed both) and am up +10.21u in my action on Cardinals games this year. With what I perceive to be a major edge for St. Louis once again, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that I’m on them once again.
Cardinals SP Adam Wainwright has been marvelous at home each of the past 2 seasons. This year, Waino holds a 2.30 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, an is allowing just 0.6 HR/9 at Busch Stadium. This Rockies offense struggles mightily when they don’t have the Coors Field conditions aiding their numbers; since June 1st, the Rockies hold a measly 81 wRC+ away from home.
Rockies SP Antonio Senzatela is a glorified pitching machine, allowing 12.7 hits per 9 innings this year. While Senzatela is a heavy ground-ball guy, he’s actually fared much worse away from Coors Field this season(5.50 ERA, 1.62 WHIP on the road). This is a Cardinals offense that is simply in steady current form; they’re averaging just under 5.5 runs/game here in the month of August. Since June 1st, the Red Birds hold a 119 wRC+ vs righties at home.
By nature of the Rockies ranking 28th in bullpen WHIP, the Cardinals will hold a sizable advantage once again in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Rangers -1.5(+110) vs Athletics–1:05 PM CT
Rangers SP Dane Dunning has pitched very well at Globe Life Field each of the past 2 seasons. This year, Dunning holds a 3.23 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in Arlington. By nature of holding a GB/FB% well over 2.00, Dunning is not a big threat to give up the long ball. That’s even more true when you consider he’ll match up with one of the worst lineups in baseball that ranks 25th in HR’s this year.
Athletics SP Zach Logue is pitching in the big leagues out of necessity for a rebuilding team, not because he’s a ML caliber arm. In 8 starts, the lefty holds a gross 5.49 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. Logue has produced twice as many fly balls as he has ground balls, likely a big reason why he’s allowing 1.76 HR/9. The Rangers haven’t swung the bats well this series, but since June 1st, this lineup holds the 2nd highest wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark(154 wRC+).
The Rangers recently added their closer Joe Barlow back from the IL, giving this ‘pen a bit more flexibility. They hold a sizable enough advantage to where I feel comfortable playing this one throughout the full game.
*MLB(1u): Mets/Braves UNDER 7(-110)–6:20 PM CT
Braves SP Max Fried has developed into a year-in, year-out All-Star caliber arm. The lefty has held a sub-1.10 WHIP in each of the past 3 seasons and has found consistent success in his home ballpark. While the Mets took advantage of a dream matchup against Jake Odorizzi last night(we were on that), this lineup is very mediocre vs left-handed pitching(101 wRC+ vs lefties on the road since June 1st).
Mets SP Jacob DeGrom is clearly an other-world level talent. In addition to holding a 1.62 ERA and 0.42 WHIP(that is not a typo), DeGrom is striking out over 15 batters per 9 innings this year. For those who want to point out the small sample size, consider that, last year(15 starts), DeGrom held a 1.08 ERA and 0.55 WHIP. If you fade DeGrom in the name of “regression”, you very well might lose your entire bankroll.
The Braves’ bullpen has proven to be trustworthy this season(7th in bullpen WHIP). While the Mets hold worse numbers due to some poor middle relief pitching this season, I can still trust the back-end of their bullpen.
*MLB(1u): Padres TT OVER 5.5(+105) vs Nationals–8:40 PM CT
Nationals SP Anibal Sanchez is a deadbeat arm. The 38 year old brings a 7.20 ERA and 1.60 WHIP into tonight’s start, but perhaps what’s most disturbing in the fact that Sanchez is producing more fly balls than ground balls. For a guy with bad stuff at this point in his career, it’s no wonder Sanchez has allowed 3 HR/9 this season.
I would look to fade Sanchez anyway, but I feel even more comfortable doing so considering he’s making his 2nd straight start against this Padres lineup. Considering Sanchez allowed 9 baserunners and 2 ER in 5 IP last weekend, he was fortunate to escape with only 3 ER allowed. The Padres absolutely racked Pablo Lopez in Miami yesterday, and I have seen improvements vs right-handed pitching throughout the course of the summer.
The Nationals bullpen ranks 24th in bullpen WHIP and is certainly a unit I don’t mind playing against.
