Overall a winning day in WNBA, albeit a frustrating win since the Sun couldn’t muster much of a scoring output. Onto the next, added another CFB play and WNBA play.
MLB Leans (not official plays):
Lots of huge favorites today, not a ton of value, but I’ll probably make an actual play on the White Sox/Orioles over. The O’s also have value at home after a loss, and @BohBohBets tells us this is a good trend – the White Sox lose in game 3 on the road in all of August.
Angels/Rays also feels like an under, but I’ve been wrong a lot there. Baseball, LOL.
WNBA Playoffs (2-10, -9.80 units):
(Sunday)
Aces -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Nice spot for the Aces here, after a ton of rest and an easy first series win against Phoenix, to lay the hammer down on Seattle. Las Vegas hasn’t lost at home to Seattle this year and they’ve won by margin in both cases. The Storm are a solid enough team but Vegas, primed in a 5-game series to start off dominant, should be focused and on top of their game. It helps that they haven’t had to travel for some time. We’ll look to play back on Seattle when the series moves to the Pacific Northwest.
NFL Preseason Week 3 (14-5, +11.05 units):
Lean under 36 in Packers/Chiefs
Lean Texans +3.5 in 49ers/Texans
Not enough evidence to like either one, but the Packers and Chiefs game should be pretty sleepy. No Aaron Rodgers, probably very little if any Patrick Mahomes. And while the 49ers may play their starters for a little while, Houston has more QB depth (SF without Jimmy G) so there’s probably more value there. Either way, I can’t bet on a game tonight.
Panthers -6 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Inflated for a reason, the Panthers starters and specifically QBs need more reps. Bet them early too, if you can. Buffalo won’t give a shit about this game.
Seahawks -4.5 (-110), to win 0.5 units
Same situation as above.
CFB Picks (0-0):
(Week 0)
Northwestern +13 (-110), to win 1.5 units
My thesis on this game: this is a really stupid line. All we see, every year, is Scott Frost disappointing. I know they’re at home but big whoop, they’ve been terrible at home under Frost, and Northwestern returns a lot of starters with a ton of experience. Conversely, Nebraska lost plenty of talent. Gotta hit this line – makes no sense to me.
Wyoming/Illinois over 44 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is a great article by TheOddsBreakers own Michael Fordham and I agree with his take. I’d rather put my money on the over, though. Illinois offense has the weapons and protection to expose Wyoming’s defense, and even though the Cowboys lost a lot of talent in the offseason, the Illini defense doesn’t scare us away and Wyoming, who averaged over 25 ppg last season, should be able to get close to 20 by the final whistle. Give me the over.
FAU -7 (-110), to win 1 unit
We disagree with this line movement but we’ll capitalize on the opportunity. FAU, from our purview, has an advantage on both offense and defense in this one. Last year they trounced Charlotte 38-9 as 6 point road favorites and I don’t think there’s enough change to claim that this result should be any different. FAU can move the ball and their secondary should still be significantly better than Charlotte’s. Take FAU with confidence.
Hawaii +7 (-115), to win 2 units
Hawaii will host their first matchup at home, and while the Rainbow Warriors are far from an elite college football team, they’ve been really good in this spot. Since 2017, they’ve only lost one opener, and that was against a much better opponent in UCLA last year. At home, with all the pomp and circumstance they’ll roll out in front of their home fans, I’m not sure Vanderbilt will be ready. Hawaii’s offensive line just got healthy and I have to believe the whole team will play WAY over their heads. In short, these two squads are very evenly matched, so we’re not quite sure how Vandy is 7 point favorites on the road. Take Hawaii with confidence.
(Week 1)
Notre Dame +15 (-110), 1.5 units, September 3
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
Everyone loves the Buckeyes and for good reason. They’re absolutely loaded with talent, especially on offense, and CJ Stroud is set to have a big year. That’s all fine and good, but there’s one area where Ohio State could be very vulnerable; their offensive line. Play schemes to accommodate speed make elite O-line play less important in college football, but Lindy’s preseason magazine, a highly touted and respected source for college football before the Week 1 kickoff, ranks the Irish as having the 4th best secondary AND defensive line in the country. Ohio State lacks O-line depth and arguably their best lineman, a 3 year sophomore, is coming off an ACL tear last season. Notre Dame is fired up under their new head coach and although they still have many question marks on offense, their showing against Oklahoma State in Marcus Freeman’s first game as HC is a good sign that this program will fight for their new leader. On top of that, Ohio State owns an unimpressive +9 margin against their last 15 ranked opponents, dating back 3 seasons under Ryan Day. Last season they beat Utah by only 3, Michigan by 15, Penn State by 9 and they lost outright to Oregon. Their one impressive showing vs ranked opponents last year was a win against an overrated Purdue team, ZzZzZ. Long story short – Notre Dame’s legacy is full of pride and they know they’re a big underdog heading into this contest. With Ohio State’s proclivity to let down and demonstrate underwhelming production despite their overwhelming talent, we have to take the Irish in Week 1.
