A 3-0, +3.15u Thursday brings my MLB record to 147-132-5, +9.57u. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to start the weekend off strong. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rangers F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105) vs Tigers– 7:05 PM CT
Unbeknownst to many, this Rangers offense has been elite in this role. Since June 1st, the Rangers hold a league-best 161 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. They also plated 16 runs on Wednesday in Colorado and should feel confident facing Tigers SP Tyler Alexander. Alexander is a soft-throwing, “pitch to contact” lefty that has struggled on the road over the past 2 years. He allowed 1.6 HR/9 away from Comerica Park last year, and that has jumped up to 1.8 HR/9 this year to pair with his 1.46 road WHIP. Alexander’s style can be effective against a certain style of lineup, but I have little faith it translates well against an offense that has proven it can mash lefties at an elite clip.
Given the Tigers are coming off an off-day and have surprised me with their bullpen, I’ll isolate the F5 and key in on the matchup I want to take advantage of most.
*MLB(1u): Royals TT UNDER 3.5(-135) vs Padres–7:10 PM CT
You could make the argument this TT should be at 2.5. Joe Musgrove is a year-in, year-out All Star caliber arm that brings a brilliant 1.01 WHIP into tonight’s start. While he gets the luxury of pitching in San Diego, he has shown little-to-no dropoff on the road these past two years as a Padre. This is a favorable matchup facing a Royals offense that holds a rough 88 wRC+ vs righties since June 1st. KC also ranks near the bottom in both slugging% and HR’s hit, so I think Musgrove has a clear path to control this outing from start to finish.
Josh Hader has had well-publicized struggles in August since being acquired from Milwaukee, but the Padres still have a top-10 bullpen in baseball. Coming off an off-day, I can trust this fresh unit in what I perceive to be a very favorable matchup. The Padres have been skidding recently, but that rest almost solely on their offense.
*MLB(1u): Yankees TT OVER 4.5(+105) @ Athletics–8:40 PM CT
While the Yankees were a “play against” lineup for most of the month, they have had a great week; they swept the Mets earlier in the week and broke out last night with a 13-run performance against these A’s. Since June 1st, the Yanks hold the highest wRC+ in the league vs lefties on the road. Many people overlooked Giancarlo Stanton’s absence and the effect it had on this order. Since welcoming him back, they look like the same dangerous lineup we’ve seen for most of the season.
I think the love for Athletics SP JP Sears is extremely premature. While Sears has looked great here in his rookie campaign, this is just his 6th career big league start. I worry about how sustainable this early success is; Sears is allowing over 30% of balls to be hit above 95 mph, and he’s left an astounding 85% of runners on base. The strikeout rate he held at the minor league level has also failed to translate to the big league level. Even more of a red flag, Sears was traded by the Yankees just a month ago. If anybody has dirt on Sears and knows how to give him his “welcome to the big leagues” moment, it’s the Yankees.
The A’s have a bottom 5 bullpen in baseball and have been a “play against” unit all season. When you combine that with the youth of Sears and the Yankees current form(+ proven track record), the fact that we’re getting this at anything better than -120 is laughable.
