I’m on a 6-1 run in MLB and see my season record at 154-141-6, +6.67u. I’m rolling with a 4 play card tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Orioles F5 TT OVER 2.5(+100) @ Nationals–6:05 PM CT
Why we continue to be offered reasonable prices to fade Nationals SP Patrick Corbin is beyond me. Corbin has been arguably the worst SP in baseball for 3 years running, is allowing 12.5 hits/9 innings this year, and holds a disgusting 1.71 WHIP. The Orioles are far from world beaters offensively, but a 104 wRC+ vs lefties on the road since July 1st proves them to be plenty competent enough to take advantage of this favorable matchup.
*MLB(1u): Twins -1.5(+110) vs Royals–6:40 PM CT
Twins SP Sonny Gray has been quite solid for the Twins this season(3.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and is in good current form having allowed just 7 ER across his last 5 starts. The Royals hold a measly 89 wRC+ vs righties on the road since July 1st and were nearly no-hit last night. Minnesota had a bad start to September but showed life in last night’s blowout win. They’ll get a favorable matchup today facing off against a run-down arm in Zack Greinke. Greinke holds some of the worst road numbers in baseball(6.33 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 2.2 HR/9) and is missing bats at the lowest rate in his career while simultaneously allowing nearly 30% of balls to be hit 95+ mph.
The Royals have far and away the worst bullpen in baseball, giving the Twins a sizable advantage in the later innings. If the market realized how bad Greinke has been in this role, we would not be getting this at plus-money.
*MLB(1u): Brewers/Cardinals F5 UNDER 3.5(-115)–6:45 PM CT
This is a Grade-A pitching matchup between two aces in Corbin Burnes and Adam Wainwright. Burnes has had the Cardinals number in a major way this year, allowing just 1 ER across 21 innings against the Red Birds. Burnes is a sub-1.00 WHIP guy who, when at his best, I would put up against any SP in the league. Adam Wainwright is an easy back at home, recording a sub-3.00 ERA at Busch Stadium each of the past 2 seasons(and many more times throughout his career). While he’s coming off a few uncharacteristically poor starts, he’s treated us well in this role all season. The Brewers have started to swing the bats better here in September but are still a lineup I have zero faith in when stepping up in competition.
*MLB(1u): Rangers F5 -0.5(-110) vs Athletics–7:05 PM CT
It was a matter of time before Athletics SP JP Sears saw some regression, and boy did he in his last start(6 ER, 3 HR’s allowed in just 2 innings). It turns out you can’t strike out less than 6 batters/9 and allow over 30% of balls to be hit 95+ mph and have sustainable success. Now, Sears has to turn around and face a Rangers lineup that holds a league-best 171 wRC+ vs lefties at home since July 1st… sign me up. Rangers SP Dane Dunning is a heavy-ground ball guy who’s been steady at Globe Life Field; I can trust him to make pretty quick work of this A’s lineup.
