I released 4 Best Bets yesterday and have now added 2 more plays to my Week 3 CFB card. I’m sitting on a few more leans that could become official plays by Saturday; to be sure, join my Telegram group to receive a text if those are added.
*Note: I have upgraded NC State -10 to a 1.5u play
*CFB(1u): Mississippi State ML(-130) @ LSU–Sat 9/17; 5 PM CT
I patiently waited for this ML to drop to -130 but have had this matchup circled for awhile. Mississippi State very well may be the most underrated team in the country. We’ll get to the offense in a second, but it really starts with their Front 7 defensively. They return their entire Front 4 from a year ago and figure to take advantage of what has proven to be a weak LSU offensive line. The LB corps is LOADED for the Bulldogs; if I don’t expect LSU to win up front, why would I expect them to beat Miss State at the 2nd level? LSU will welcome back RB John Emery Jr into the fold, but this will be his first appearance since 2020. I think Mississippi State’s secondary is attackable IF the opposing offense can buy their QB time, but that’s unlikely to be true here. I feel good about how Mississippi State will handle the QB run as well, something that LSU will likely have to use out of necessity.
Mike Leach inherited a set of players that were recruited to run a completely different system than the Air Raid. We saw flashes last year of this offense taking that next step, and they have come out of the gates hot here in 2022. Will Rogers is a 3rd year starter that completed 75% of his passes a season ago, but I actually think he’s set for an even bigger year. The Bulldogs now have a ton of continuity at WR and use their RB’s well in the passing game; Rogers should match last year’s efficiency while also starting to create more explosive plays. LSU’s front 4 is not as full strength; quite frankly, this defense was lucky to escape their opener with only 24 points allowed against Florida State. Mike Norvell left a ton of points on the field with some questionable short-yardage decision making. This Bulldogs offense is a well-oiled machine that I expect to take advantage of an attackable LSU back 7.
*CFB(1u): Texas A&M -6 vs Miami–Sat 9/17; 8 PM CT
Now that Notre Dame has exposed themselves as frauds, Miami jumps into the conversation as the next overrated team that will soon be exposed. We all want Miami to be “back”, but they aren’t there yet; there’s a reason a total staff overhaul was made this offseason. I like Mario Cristobal, but to assume he will make the team an immediate contender is nonsense. QB Tyler Van Dyke is the clear strength of this offense, and quite frankly, he may be the only strength. The Hurricanes run game was putrid a year ago, and I highly doubt we will see any Miami RB eclipse 5 YPC this year. They also lost their top 2 WR’s from a year ago and have seemingly had a tough time replacing that level of production. Most importantly, however, I think the Hurricanes have a long way to go to get the OL up to Mario Cristobal’s standard. They allowed 4 sacks vs Southern Miss last week and now have to go up against one of the best defensive fronts in college football. The Aggies also have one of the best secondaries in the country, so I’m not conceding the fact that Van Dyke struggles himself. Miami has played two nobodies to start the season; they are far from flawless.
It’s been a brutal week in College Station following last week’s loss to App State, but how repeatable is that performance? Credit App State for controlling the clock(42 minutes TOP), but it also leads to a somewhat misleading final score. I can virtually guarantee you the Aggies will see better QB play this week one way or the other. Haynes King will either step up and show improvement, or he will give way to LSU transfer Max Johnson. Johnson is far from a world beater, be he proved at LSU he was plenty steady enough to manage a game(5:1 TD/INT ratio). Quite frankly, I expect Johnson to take over the job this week and for A&M to show massive improvements offensively. RB Devon Achane is a talented back(7 YPC last year) that has struggled to find running room early in the season; thankfully, A&M will welcome back a key OL piece in Bryce Foster that should open up some more running room. Miami had a brutal run defense a season ago and have yet to be challenged in that department so far this year. Their secondary is still very unproven, so I think Johnson and co. can take advantage of that aspect of Miami’s D as well.
