I hold a record of 159-146-6, +6.32u in MLB this year and am rolling with 2 plays for tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rangers TT OVER 3.5(-135) vs Angels–7:05 PM CT
The Rangers have been elite against left-handed pitching at Globe Life Field, holding a league-high 172 wRC+ in this role since July 1st. Angels SP Patrick Sandoval has been a guy I’ve looked for chances to fade all season. His 2.99 ERA is incredibly deceiving when you factor in his 1.35 WHIP. Sandoval gives up right around 1 hit per inning while simultaneously struggling with control; the Rangers have proven time and time again that they step up well against these vulnerable lefty arms.
This Angels bullpen is incredibly mediocre, perhaps more so than their overall season numbers would indicate. I was priced out of isolating this TT in the F5(I’m not going to lay -155), but I feel comfortable trusting the Rangers over the full game. If Sandoval were priced according more to his WHIP, we wouldn’t be getting this at 3.5.
*MLB(1u): Royals F5 ML(-110) vs Twins–7:10 PM CT
For as bad as Zack Greinke has been on the road, he has been utterly impeccable at Kauffman Stadium this season(1.93 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 0.1 HR/9). He’ll face a Twins lineup that has to be utterly demoralized after losing 4 out of 5 to the Guardians over the weekend and virtually eliminating them from the playoff race. Handicapping motivation in baseball is usually a waste of time, but if there were ever a massive let down spot, it would be here.
Twins SP Dylan Bundy is perhaps the most hit-or-miss SP in baseball. He has been particularly inconsistent on the road(5.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 1.5 HR/9) and now has to face the same lineup for the second straight start. Conditions will play favorably for more runs tonight, which hurts the fly ball pitcher that has struggled with the long ball more than it does Greinke.
Given the Royals hold far-and-away the worst bullpen numbers in baseball, there is no reason to play this over the full game. Isolate the F5 and trust Greinke in a role he’s excelled in all year.
