I released 4 CFB Best Bets this afternoon and will almost certainly add some smaller plays closer to Saturday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Arizona/Cal UNDER 50.5–Sat 9/24; 4:30 PM CT
This opened up at 48 before being steamed up, so I’ll play against what I perceive to be a bad line move.
When you look up the word “mediocre” on Google, I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a picture of this Cal offense as the accompanying photo. It’s been that way for the entirety of the Justin Wilcox era, and if these first 3 games were any indication, it’ll be that way once again in 2022. Wilcox replaced the loss of mediocre QB Chase Garbers with another mediocre QB in Purdue transfer Jack Plummer(career 6.9 Y/A). The Golden Bears run game is far from explosive, and their OL has already allowed 12 sacks through just 3 games. Arizona’s secondary is clearly the strength of the defense, so don’t expect an explosive Cal passing game to pop up out of thin air in this one.
While Jayden de Laura is a major QB upgrade for Arizona, he has not looked all that impressive to start the season. After his breakout freshman year at Washington State, de Laura is completing just 60% of his passes this year at less than 7 Y/A. He has some young talent to work with on the outside, but this Cal defense will present a tough test. The Golden Bears rank in the Top 35 by my defensive efficiency metrics and do a good job of limiting explosive plays thanks to a pair of very dependable safeties.
I expect a lot of stalled drives, punts, and an all around ugly display of football.
*CFB(1u): Kansas State 1H +7.5 @ Oklahoma–Sat 9/24; 7 PM CT
If you’re considerably higher on Oklahoma after seeing them eviscerate Nebraska, history would prove your logic is faulty. After beating Nebraska in Dublin, Northwestern has responded with outright losses at home to Duke and Southern Illinois. After Georgia Southern’s win in Lincoln, they lost by double-digits at UAB the very next week. That trend speaks for itself.
Kansas State inexplicably lost at home to Tulane last week, which rightfully has sentiment on them low heading into this matchup. However, Kansas State will not blink in this spot. They won outright in Norman in 2020 as 28 point ‘dogs, and if not for a brilliant performance by Spencer Rattler, they would’ve beaten the Sooners last year. The Wildcats have a top 10 defense in the country that has yielded less than 10 PPG this year. They return both starting CB’s, have completely dominated opponents’ rushing attacks, but perhaps most importantly, they can get after the QB. I am not sold on Oklahoma’s OL after seeing them struggle to consistently protect Dillon Gabriel against inferior competition. I’m also not ready to say Oklahoma has all that good of a rushing attack just because they ran all over Nebraska; there are options, but don’t underestimate how tough of a test this Kansas State defense presents.
Kansas State RB Deuce Vaughn has racked up 319 yards over the last 2 seasons facing off against this Oklahoma defense, and he will undoubtedly be the centerpiece of the Wildcats’ game plan in the run and pass game. Collin Klein has not taken the training wheels off of QB Adrian Martinez yet, but I’m not willing to concede the possibility of Martinez becoming much more of a threat through the air. He showed major progression as a passer last year(9.4 Y/A) in addition to what he can do in the run game(nearly 2500 career yards on the ground). Oklahoma has exceeded my expectations in the pass rushing department, but I believe their back 7 can be had in this matchup.
I’m not playing this over the full game because, if Oklahoma is able to start pulling away, that forces Kansas State out of their gameplan offensively. However, I expect Chris Kleiman to come out with a great script offensively and for a borderline elite Kansas State defense to get stops early.
*CFB Teaser(1u): Baylor/Iowa State UNDER 52.5 + Arkansas +9 vs Texas A&M(-130)
“NeVeR tEaSe CoLlEgE fOoTbAlL”. I get that there’s more variance on average in CFB than in the NFL, but to imply that every matchup fits that criteria is absurd. I get snide comments from the same people every time I give out a teaser, so thought that was worth addressing.
Baylor/ISU is a low-variance game where I think pushing this total above multiple key numbers is the right call. Each team is led by their defense, and neither of these QB’s present much of a threat in the vertical passing game. Iowa State’s biggest loss from last year’s team is clearly RB Breece Hall; to say Jirehl Brock is a massive downgrade might be the understatement of the year. I wouldn’t expect Iowa State to get much of a push against a Baylor front 4 that returns its entire 2 deep from last year’s championship team. However, Baylor is still managing the loss of their top RB from a year ago and are not seeing the same burst out of that room. Baylor is also possibly without their TE Ben Sims who, with some relative unknowns at WR, is a much needed safety net for Blake Shapen. I could go on and on, but the last point I’ll make is that pace will be on our side here.
You could make a pretty good argument that Arkansas should be favored in this matchup. With that said, this is really a coin-flip type of game where a bounce here-and-there could be the difference. Arkansas’s secondary issues ultimately hold me off playing them at +2, but do I think A&M has the vertical passing game to consistently exploit that weakness? Hardly. Despite that disadvantage, Arkansas could make up for it with their lethal Front 7 which has produced some of the top rushing numbers in the nation here in 2022. A&M has looked spotty along their OL so far and failed to create many running lanes for Devon Achane. For as much as I like A&M’s DL and secondary, Miami proved last week that this team has holes stopping the run. That bodes horribly facing one of the most efficient rushing attacks in CFB. QB KJ Jefferson is a true dual-threat that takes care of the football(3 INT’s in ‘21) and is far more efficient a passer than people think. Out of all possible results in this matchup, an A&M double-digit win is clearly the least likely.
*CFB(0.53u): Oregon State ML(+190) vs USC–Sat 9/24; 8:30 PM CT
I don’t see much value in betting the spread here; USC is either going to cover with ease or have every chance of getting upset. Personally, I see a clear enough path for Oregon State to win this game that I will sprinkle on the ML.
USC’s defense might still be flat out terrible; I have that side of the ball power-rated as 91st in the country. Oregon State has an incredibly efficient system on offense that is predicated on running the football. Deshaun Fenwick(5.4 YPC) seems to have picked up right where BJ Baylor left off last year. USC underperformed against the run in their matchup with Stanford a few weeks ago; the Cardinal put up 460 yards overall, and if not for some inopportune turnovers, they would’ve been live dogs in that matchup. Oregon State QB Chance Nolan has proven to be a threat in the play-action game once the run game is established, throwing for 8.4 Y/A last year and 9.9 Y/A this year against some good competition. USC’s secondary was a pretty big concern for me coming into the year, and in general, I have little faith in this defense.
There’s not much to dislike about this USC offense, and on paper, this would appear to be a pretty favorable matchup. I’ll say this: Games don’t get played on paper. USC’s offense is built almost solely from the transfer portal, meaning this unit has little-to-no continuity. We saw them pass their first road test against Stanford, but playing in Corvallis at night presents their first real road test of the season. I am of the belief that the teams who focus on building from within will have the best chance at success in this new Transfer Portal era. I think the chances for head-scratching performances is greater for a team of ringers like USC, and this is exactly the scenario where that would get exploited.
I also lean pretty heavily towards the Over, though concerns with pace and Oregon State’s ball-control style are keeping me off for now.
*Rutgers TT UNDER vs Iowa(TT’s not yet published)
I’ll be on this officially when TT’s get released, hopefully at 13 or 13.5. Rutgers’ offense vs Iowa’s defense is perhaps the biggest mismatch of any matchup we’ll see on Saturday. Say what you want about Iowa’s offense, but their defense has allowed just 1 TD this year and can dominate a game at all 3 levels; they rank only behind Georgia in my power ratings. QB health is a concern for the Scarlet Knights, they simply won’t beat Iowa up front, and they have struggled mightily to establish any sort of run game.
