Week 3 is among us already! We are still settling in trying to find out each team’s true identity. That does not come quick in this league and still very important to stick to your process and trust your instincts. No knee jerk reactions here after week 2. Dialed back in and have drawn up 2 plays I really like for Sunday.
Current 2022 NFL Record: 14-11 +2.57 Units
Min -6 -110 1 Unit
The MNF woes continued for Kirk Cousins….bad, like really bad. I faded that angle last week and felt very confident doing so. Chose to focus more on Kirk’s record and production vs Philly, rather than the fact he can’t handle pondering a game all day which leads to the spotlight on him in primetime. It was a bad game all around for the Vikings. Defensively in the first half, a dropped wide open TD pass by Irv Smith, and tunnel visioned Kirk only throwing the ball to Darius Slay’s chest.
Now how do the Vikings and Cousins respond after that horrible week 2 performance? Looking back at all of the games Cousins lost on Monday night prior to last Monday (9), he has a record of 5-4 the following week. So obviously that is nothing too inspiring and doesn’t tell us anything one way or the other. Some people love trends and some people hate them. Last season was an up and down season for the Vikings… could never get a true pulse of the team. One consistent trend they had was when they lost on the road they were 4-0 the following week they had a home game. That includes 4-0 ATS. What really stands out to me is how big this line is.
This year Lions feel different, they are not the same pushover team and automatic win. Washington found that out last week. We saw the Lions hang in there with Philly week 1 and come storming back in the 4th Qtr to cover +4. Lions are a covering machine. The same Philly team who just completely handled Kirk Cousins and the Vikings. Still this line is sitting at 6? That’s a pretty big line, we know lions cover well, and I feel Vegas is begging you to take it at +6. Lions have been one of the few fortunate teams to start out with both games at home. Now they have to travel for the first time this year and looking back at last season their first two games on the road did not fare well for them. One of them being a very similar situation going against a division rival in Green Bay who was blown out the week prior. The Lions lost by double digits. Yes, different years and different teams, but we can only go off of the information we have. This is Dan Campbells second season as HC for the Lions, maybe there’s a reason his Lions don’t travel well on the road in September or maybe that was a one off issue. However for us right now its information to give us a possible angle.
Before the season started a TON of handicappers and the public loved the Vikings. The new coach and a loaded roster in a division that feels more reachable with the lack of WR depth for Green Bay. We see one bad game by Kirk Cousins on MNF and we are going to abandon that take? I don’t think so. This is the game where Kirk shows up at home, bounces back, and proves us all right about this team and its talent. Vikings BLOW OUT the Lions and Goff comes back down to earth from last week.
