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Oklahoma vs TCU +6.5 O/U 68.5
This would be a good spot to fade Oklahoma since Texas is on deck had they not lost last week to Kansas State, but that doesn’t mean that the spread is right. TCU hasn’t really played a hard strength of schedule, but I have to give Sonny Dykes some credit for going on the road and beating SMU last weekend. The environment was difficult and the pony express showed up in full force. Oklahoma lost a tough game last weekend at Kansas State but before that, they haven’t played a top 60 team with Nebraska being so bad. Both of these teams rank pretty close in yards per play margin at 2.67 for the Sooners and 2.77 For TCU. Both of these teams are also almost equal in offensive success rate with the Sooners ranking 29th and the Horned Frogs ranking 23rd. TCU believe it or not, looks to have the better defensive line stopping the run at 3.21 yards per rush to Oklahoma’s 3.56. From a coaching perspective, I like Brett Venebles and he will turn out great, but he has almost no experience yet as a head coach so Sonny Dykes gets the nod here. I like TCU to cover this spread and maybe win this game outright.
TCU +6.5 – 2.5 stars
Oklahoma State vs Baylor -2.5 O/U 56.5
Oklahoma State is in a revenge situation here after losing the Big 12 title game to Baylor. I give small credence to revenge, but in this situation the better team is a short favorite. Oklahoma State has had the 146th schedule so far. They haven’t even been on the road yet, and had an early bye giving them two weeks off before this game. The Pokes have a pretty suspect defense in my opinion giving up 5.11 yards per play against some pretty bad teams. Baylor looks very solid so far this year with 1 hiccup loss at BYU in overtime where they showed they still were the better team. I also like the fact that they had faced adversity. Baylor ranks 27th in offensive success rate, and 19th on defense while the Pokes rank 45th and 36th respectively having a much easier schedule. Oklahoma State will try and speed up this game some ranking 3rd in Tempo. This could turn out to be a disaster if they can’t finish drives allowing Baylor to capitalize on a defense that did not return many starter from last year. I like Baylor making this game look easier than it should be.
Baylor -2.5 – 2.5 stars
Alabama vs Arkansas +17.5 O/U 60
- This is the best game of the weekend here and I think that the dog has a barking change.
- Alabama didn’t play anybody except for Texas so far and that was a road game that they could have lost.
- Going back to last year, Alabama has not been all that impressive on the road losing to Texas A&M and almost losing to Florida and Auburn.
- I also have to wonder if this Crimson tide team might be looking ahead to A&M in a revenge type spot.
- Arkansas went to Alabama last year and kept this game within 13 points, I think at home they can make a statement here with their Talent.
- I think KJ Jefferson learned a lot last week from playing at A&M and will find ways to beat Alabama’s defense.
- My pure power number is Alabama -14.5 but I would make this game Alabama -13 due to the spot.
Arkansas +17.5 – 2.5 stars