Jacksonville vs Philadelphia -6.5 O/U 48
Why are we so scared of the big bad Eagles? Yes they pounded some crappy teams as well as the Vikings who couldn’t score in the Red Zone but are they that much better than Jacksonville? What if we erase the Washington game week 1 off of the Jaguar’s history? What is the line on this game? Metrically, the Eagles have a nice yards per play advantage at net 1.9 compared to Jacksonville’s .2, but I also think that the strength of schedule favors the Jags shutting down the Colts, and the Chargers with 1 hiccup vs the Commanders is stronger compared to the Eagles beating the Vikings at home, Commanders, and Lions. Looking at EPA, the Jaguars are number 3 in defense compared to the Eagles being number 7, while on offense the Jags are number 7 and the Eagles are number 4. Both quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence are about equal in quarterback rating. I think coaching-wise, the Jaguars know this is a huge game for Doug Peterson coming back to his old team, and will try to play out of their minds to win it.
Jaguars +6.5 – 3 stars
Chicago vs NY Giants -3 O/U 38.5
When you look at these lines, it is assumed that the Bears are still all about defense. Well, the way that they gave up yards on the ground vs the Texans, and the Packers tells me different. I think the Texans really beat themselves last week in Chicago giving the ball away in a tied game on their side of the field with 1 minute left in the clock. Dumb coaching move to throw the ball there. Justin Fields could turn out to be a good quarterback, but he still seems like a rookie to me having a new coach and a brand new system this year. He ranks second to last in EPA + CPOE thus far, and he is prone to throwing interceptions when scrambling. The Good fields can put up large chunks of yards with his legs and get the Bears into scoring range. Justin has a high variance of scoring and throwing bad interceptions to give up field position which is good for the over. The Giants are banged up at wide receiver, but they still have Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton who have some NFL experience. New York’s offense ranks 21st in EPA which is good and their stud running back Saquon Barkley is still healthy. I like the over in this game.
Over 38.5 – 2 stars
