Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 3-1 in the high participant Double-Ups. On a 3 Week winning streak!
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 12-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Tom Brady, QB: $6,000. Going back to the value well again this week at QB. This just seems like the spot the Bucs get going. Brady lit the scoreboard up playing from behind last week. I expect him to do the same at the start this week against the Falcons. This offense just hums different with Mike Evans and the rest of Brady’s weapons are getting healthy with the exception of Cameron Brate. The Falcons are currently 26th in the NFL against the pass.
Jeff Wilson Jr., RB: $5,500. Wilson looks to be the lead back with 18 carries last week for the 49ers against the Rams. While Deebo will continue to get his I think Wilson is the look here for a possible grinder of a game against the Panthers. There’s also the possibility he gets a good chunk of carries holding onto a lead late in the game.
Damien Harris, RB: $5,600. With it looking like Bailey Zappe will start again at QB this week against Detroit, expect the Pats to commit to the ground game like they did against the Packers last week. While I think Zappe will throw more with first team snaps and a solid game plan to attack this porous Lions Defense, the offense will flow threw Harris. The Lions are allowing a league worst 5.6 Yards per attempt on the ground.
Cooper Kupp, WR: $9,600. Yes I am paying up for Kupp. Stafford is struggling to stay upright against teams with a solid pass rush which means he needs to get it out quick. Which means Kupp. He had 19 targets and 14 catches against the 49ers last week, and 15 targets and 13 catches against the Bills week 1 when Stafford was under pressure. (Also they were behind). It could be a little tougher with the Cowboys sitting at 5th in pass DVOA, but I don’t care. He’s getting the ball.
Mike Evans, WR: $6,900. If we’re gonna have Brady we should probably have some guys for him to throw to and cash in on some stacks. Evans had 6 catches for 103 yards and 2 scores last week and Evans is a beast in the Red Zone. He is tied for the league lead with 3 Red Zone TDs on 5 Targets despite missing a week.
Christian Kirk, WR: $6,600. Kirk only had 2 catches last week, but was still targeted 9 times. He is clearly Trevor Lawrence’s favorite option garnering 28% of the targets up to this point. I see a bounce back game here against the Texans. With the Jags struggling to rush the ball look for them to go to the air early and often to get up on Houston this week.
Cade Otton, TE: $2,500. It’s possible Kyle Rudolph plays a bigger role this week with Cameron Brate being out, but I think Otton endeared himself to Brady last week after taking over the top spot catching 3 of 4 balls thrown his way.
Tyler Allgeier, Flex: $4,700. It will be a tough test against the Bucs, so I’m not sure how many carries the Falcons will garner if they get behind. That being said Allgeier looked good last week when he was in the game rushing 10 times for 84 yards and catching one pass of 20. While he did split pretty much 50/50 with Caleb Huntley I think Allgeier starts to take the lions share of the work going forward with Patterson hitting the IR. The Falcons will try and keep the Bucs offense off the field by running the ball early.
Cowboys, DST: $2,500. I think the Cowboys are highly under valued here against the Rams. Yes, the Rams are the defending Super Bowl champs and have Cooper Kupp who we are taking, but they also can’t protect Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys are 4th in the NFL in Sack Percentage at 9.55%. Two of the teams ahead of them are the Bills and 49ers, and we saw what they did to the Rams. Also the Cowboys have yet to allow a team to score 20 points this season. With this total only sitting at 42 I think it could easily happen again.
