Zozo Championship – Preview & Picks

Tom Kim rides the momentum from the Presidents Cup and wins the Shriners Children’s Open. He became the first player since Tiger Woods to win twice on the PGA Tour before turning 21. What’s even more impressive is that he failed to record a single bogey all tournament.

The 4th edition Zozo Championship takes place this week at Narashino Country Club in Japan. Despite it being the 4th edition, this will only be the third time it’s held at this course. In 2020, the Zozo Championship took place in California due to the pandemic travel restrictions.

The TV Schedule is also a bit strange this week with the tournament taking place overseas. so get ready for those Saturday night/ Sunday morning sweats!!

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: October 13th, 2022 – October 16th, 2022
• Location: Inzai, Chiba Prefecture, Japan
• Course: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club
• Course Type: Parkland
• Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Length: 7,079 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Fairways: Zoysiagrass
• Rough: Zoysiagrass 2″
• Bunkers: N/A
• Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play 5 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 10.5 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $11,000,000 /$1,980,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 78 Players | No Cut
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2021: 70.48 (+0.48), Rank 11 of 50
  • 2019: 69.53 (-0.48), Rank 15 of 41

 

Comparable Courses & Greens:

 

TV Information:

• Round 1: Wednesday, October 12th -> Thursday, October 13th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
• Round 2: Thursday, October 13th -> Friday, October 14th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM
• Round 3: Friday, October 14th -> Saturday, October 15th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 10:30 PM – 2:30 AM
• Round 4: Saturday, October 15th -> Sunday, October 16th, 2022
  • Golf Channel – 11:00 PM – 3:00 AM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Sunny 70 F, 9 mp/h W, 61% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Sunny 68 F, 8 mp/h S, 69% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Partly Cloudy 64 F, 9 mp/h S, 79% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Mostly Sunny 64 F, 9 mp/h W, 78% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Zozo Championship was founded in 2019 and is the first-ever event sanctioned in Japan by the PGA Tour. In its debut, Tiger Woods took home the win and captured his 82nd PGA Tour victory, tying the all-time record set by Sam Snead. In 2020, the event was held at Sherwood Country Club in California due to the COVID-19 travel restrictions. Last year, with the restrictions lifted, it was held once again at Narashino Country Club.

Narashino Country Club opened in 1965 and was designed by Kinya Fujita. While North American fans were first introduced to this course in 2019, many professional events have been held here. Just three years after the course opened, it hosted the 1968 Japan PGA Championship. In 1977, the Japan Open took place here where Seve Ballesteros became the first non-Asian to win the event. Narashino Country Club was also the home to the Suntory Open on the Japan Golf Tour from 1974-1997.

72-Hole Record: 261, Tiger Woods (2019)

18-Hole Record: 63, Keegan Bradley (Round 1, 2019), Rory McIlroy (Round 3, 2019), Hiroshi Iwata (Round 1, 2021), Naoto Nakanishi (Round 4, 2021).

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club is a Par 70 that plays 7,079 yards. The layout is a bit unusual with five Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. There have been two changes from last year in terms of yardage. Hole 5 has been increased from 191 yards to 205 yards and Hole 10 has been increased from 376 yards to 400 yards. This course also features the traditional Japanese setup of dual greens.

The five Par 3’s range between 141 yards and 205 yards. Last year, No. 5 and No. 16 were the only par 3’s to have a scoring average over par.

Hole No. 16 is a 183-yard par 3 that requires an accurate iron shot off the tee. The right side of the green is guarded by bunkers with the left protected by a small lake. The green slopes severely right to left feeding any shots that land short left into the water.

The majority of the eleven Par 4’s range between 450-500 yards. No. 2 is the shortest listed at 368 yards with the longest being No. 4, just over 500 yards.

No. 12 is a downhill 490-yard par 4 that traditionally is played as a par 5. Off the tee, players will want to position themselves along the left side of the fairway giving themselves an easier shot into this challenging green. On the front left side, the green is protected by numerous bunkers. Depending on the pin location players will need a precise approach shot to avoid a difficult putt on this three-tiered green.

The three Par 5’s are No. 6, 14, and 18. No 14 is the only Par 5 that is listed over 600 yards. It was also the only Par 5 to have a scoring average over par last year (+0.306).

No. 14 is the longest of the Par 5’s and one of the more challenging holes on the entire course. It’s a narrow hole off the tee with tree trouble to the left and right. As players approach the green, more bunkers come into play. The green is slightly elevated sloping from the back right to the front left. If players miss on the front left side of the green, the ball will slope toward the bunker in the front.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 16

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
• Par 3 Scoring: 175 – 200 Yards
• Par 4 Scoring: 450 – 500 Yards
• Par 5 Scoring: 550 – 600 Yards
• Birdies or Better Gained
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

This week’s event will feature a 78-player field with no cut. The field is comprised of the top 60 PGA Tour players from the previous season’s FedEx Cup standings, the top 7 players on the Japan Golf Tour money list, the top 3 players at the Bridgestone Open, and 8 sponsor exemptions.

• Xander Schauffele (+800), has finished T10 and T28 in the two times he’s played in this tournament held at this course. He’ll be making his first start of the season this week. Xander’s last start was at the TOUR Championship where he finished 4th. He played at the President’s Cup and secured 3 points for the US side.
• Sungjae Im (+1100), finished 7th at the Shriners Children’s Open last week. He finished T3 at this event back in 2019 but did not play last year.
• Tom Kim (+1400), has been on an absolute heater lately. He put on an absolute show at the President’s Cup and won the Shriners Children’s Open. Tom will be making his Zozo Championship debut this week.
• Collin Morikawa (+1600), finished T22 in 2019 and followed that up by finishing T7 last year in this event. He’ll be making his first start of the season after a disappointing year, failing to win a single event.
• Hideki Matsuyama (+1600), is the defending champion of the Zozo Championship. In 2019, he finished 2nd so he has thrived at this venue. He has competed in one event this season and finished T25 at the Fortinet Championship.

 

Previous Winners in the field: Hideki Matsuyama (’21)

Notable Withdraws: Aaron Wise

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses (2019/2021):

• Hideki Matsuyama (+): 2/ 1
• Corey Conners: T6/ DNP
• Sungjae Im: T3/ DNP
• Keegan Bradley: T13/ T7
• Xander Schauffle: T10/ T28
• Collin Morikawa: T22/ T7

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• CT Pan: T59/ T57

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2021 @ Narashino Country Club: Hideki Matsuyama (-15)
  • Price: 16-1
• 2020 @ Sherwood Country Club: Patrick Cantlay (-23)
  • Price: 28-1
• 2019 @ Narashino Country Club: Tiger Woods (-19)
  • Price: 33-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Sungjae Im (+1200) – Caesars
  • Risk 0.67 to win 8.04 Units

Sungjae Im has been trending towards a win for a while now and this event seems like a great spot for him to finally break through. He made his first start of the season last week at TPC Summerlin where he finished 7th. Im has played in the Zozo Championship twice before but only once at this course. In 2019, he finished T3.

While the official yardage of the course isn’t overly long, distance does play a huge factor here. Im’s great tee game combined with elite iron play makes him a great player to target this week.

• Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) – Draftkings
  • Risk 0.50 to win 8.00 Units

In terms of course history, there’s no one better. In 2019, he finished 2nd in his debut. Last year, he won in dominating fashion by five strokes. He’s made one official start this season finishing T25 at the Fortinet Championship. Matsuyama also teed it up at Quail Hollow with the International team where he played fairly well.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.17 Units

 

Picks (Top 10):

• Tom Kim (+160) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Tom Kim will be making his Zozo Championship debut this week fresh off a victory at the Shriners Children’s Open. While his distance off the tee is a slight concern this week his elite level of iron play should make up for it. Based off his current form, he should be able to have success here.

• Collin Morikawa (+160) – DraftKings
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.60 Units

Morikawa has played in the Zozo Championship in all three editions. He struggled in 2020 at Sherwood Country Club but finished T22 and T7 when it was hosted at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club. He’ll be making his first official start on Tour this season but did play at the President’s Cup. His ball-striking ability makes him a prime target for this week.

Total Risk on Top 10 Placements: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Mito Pereira (+150) – Pointsbet
  • Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

If there’s one thing this course requires, it’s a great iron game. Mito currently ranks 1st on Tour in SG Approach and top 5 in Proximity 150-175 Yards. Despite not playing this course before, he did play on a very similar course for the Olympics where he finished T3. He also enters in great form off a T4 at the Shriners Children’s Open. Given the strength of the field, he should be able to crack the top 20 this week.

• Sam Ryder (+350) – Bet365
  • Risk 1.00 to win 3.50 Units

Sam Ryder was a late addition to the field this week with Aaron Wise withdrawing. He’s made three starts this season and has been trending in the right direction. He missed the cut at the Fortinet, finished T45 at the Sanderson Farms, and then finished T28 at the Shriners. Ryder checks most of the boxes this week including ranking well on “short courses”, solid iron play, great course history, and putting well on bentgrass. Given the limited field and no cut, he’s worth a look at these odds.

 

Total Risk on Top 20 Placements: 2.00 Units

Total Risk on the Zozo Championship: 5.17 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.