We’re on to the Division Series in MLB, and I’ve got 2 plays looking to start us off strong! To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group.
*MLB(1u): Dodgers -1.5(-105) vs Padres–8:37 PM CT
Dodgers SP Julio Urias has had another brilliant year, bringing a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP into tonight’s start. That WHIP improves to 0.89 at Dodger Stadium, and Urias has had quite a bit of success against this Padres lineup(4 ER in 24 innings this season). The Padres have only been slightly above average vs left-handed pitching since acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the Trade Deadline; in fact, Juan Soto is just 1-for-16 in his career vs Urias. At the end of the day, the Padres have too many weaklings in their order to where I would trust them in this sort of matchup.
Padres SP Mike Clevinger has been ATROCIOUS on the road this season, bringing a 5.46 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 1.5 HR/9 into tonight’s start. In addition, Clevinger is striking out hitters at a career-low rate and struggling with allowing hard contact. Does any of this sound like a formula success facing off against the deepest, most balanced, and best lineup in baseball? 4 separate Dodgers hold a career OPS at or above 1.000 in their past matchups with Clevinger, and this sets up as a great opportunity to start their Postseason off strong.
The Dodgers hold a pretty sizable advantage in the later innings considering this bullpen held the best bullpen WHIP in the league during the regular season.
*MLB(0.61u): Phillies F5 ML(+165) @ Braves–12:07 PM CT
The Phillies have been fantastic vs lefties away from their home ballpark this season, holding the 3rd best wRC+ in the league in this role since June 1st. Braves SP Max Fried obviously presents a tough challenge given his ability to limit homers at an elite rate, but the Phillies have proven he is not necessarily a dominant arm. In his 4 starts vs the Phillies this year, Fried held an unimpressive 1.26 WHIP. I like the depth of this Phillies order and think they can string together a few runs early in this game.
Phillies SP Ranger Suarez had his fair share of struggles pitching at Citizens Bank Park this year, but he showed much more consistency on the road and had a solid back half of the season. Of all the possible roles an offense can find themselves in, this is the role the Braves have struggled in the most. Since July 1st, the Braves hold a poor 87 wRC+ vs lefties in their home ballpark. While they have crushed lefties on the road, there is enough of a sample size(3 months) to where I put stock into that dropoff at home.
In no way, shape, or form would I ever play the Phillies over the full game. This bullpen is clearly the worst of any ‘pen remaining in the postseason. However, I do see quite a bit of value on the road dog early in this game.
