I released 3 Best Bets on Wednesday night and am back with 3 more plays for you tonight! Coming off a 4-3-1, +1.25u Week 6, let’s make it back-to-back winning weeks!
*CFB(1u): Kansas/Oklahoma OVER 62.5–Saturday 11 AM CT
Oklahoma is set to welcome back Dillon Gabriel into the fold this week, and that completely changes the dynamics around their offense. It has been a disaster of a 3 weeks in Norman, but let’s not forget what this offense did with Gabriel at the helm earlier in the season. The Sooners put up 49 points against Nebraska and really could’ve named their number in that game; they then followed that up by putting up 550 total yards on a top-10 Kansas State defense. If Gabriel doesn’t get hurt in the 2nd Quarter against TCU, that game plays out much differently. Gabriel now gets to face a Kansas secondary that has been cut like butter all season; the Jayhawks allowed 42 to West Virginia and were handled by TCU’s offense last week. Oklahoma OC Jeff Lebby likes to run with tempo, and with Gabriel back into the fold, this offense has its balance and explosiveness back.
Oklahoma’s defensive ineptitude the past 3 weeks can’t be understated. They allowed 41 points to Kansas State before getting massacred by TCU and Texas these past 2 weeks. The secondary is completely out of sorts, they are allowing opponents to establish the run, and the pass rush has completely vanished. Time and time again, blown assignments lead to chunk plays against this Sooners defense. I know Kansas is without their starting QB Jalon Daniels, but I liked what we saw from backup Jason Bean last week(262 yards, 10.9 Y/A, 4 TD vs 1 INT against TCU). Bean is a 4th year player that is plenty adequate to run this offense. In all reality, Kansas is still led by its rushing attack and offensive line, both of which have been a mainstay even in Kansas’ tougher games this year. I’m not saying there’s no dropoff with Daniels out, but I do think Kansas can get into the upper-20’s here and hold up their end of the bargain.
I would’ve set this total in the upper-60’s, so I see quite a bit of value playing this Over the total in a matchup where both offenses should be able to consistently create explosive plays.
*CFB(1u): Auburn TT UNDER 20.5(-120) @ Ole Miss–Saturday 11 AM CT
In 4 games vs Power 5 Competition this season, Auburn has yet to eclipse the 17-point threshold. While they did have to face Penn State and Georgia in that stretch, I believe this Ole Miss defense is another legitimate test. While QB Robby Ashford is solid with his legs, he is completing just 48% of his passes this season and continually plays Auburn out of drives with his inaccuracy. Perhaps more concerning, however, is Auburn’s inability to create explosive plays on the ground. We knew the QB/WR situation was shaky coming into the season, but for Tank Bigsby and Jacquez Hunter to both be under 4.5 YPC at this point of the season even with a few easy matchups sprinkled in is concerning. Ole Miss’s strength defensively is stopping the run as seen when they held Kentucky RB Chris Rodriguez Jr to just 72 yards on 19 carries. With this being Auburn’s second straight road game and quite possibly Bryan Harsin’s last game, I see no reason why this would be the matchup Auburn finally eclipses the 20-point threshold.
*CFB(1u): Wisconsin/Michigan State UNDER 49.5–Saturday 3 PM CT
In the first game following the firing of Paul Chryst, Wisconsin erupted last week with a 42-7 win against lowly Northwestern. While impressive, I credit that much more to being a “step-up” spot against a lifeless opponent than I do to Wisconsin’s offense being some juggernaut of a unit. Wisconsin features a really good RB in Brealon Allen, and QB Graham Mertz has undoubtedly improved. Even so, this offense has been marred by inconsistency this season. They put up just 14 points against Washington State and 10 points against Illinois despite both those games being at home. They ask Graham Mertz to make a lot of high level throws, making his life harder than it needs to be. Seriously, watch the best coordinators in this sport get their QB easy completion to open receivers in space, and then watch this game tomorrow. Michigan State has had their well publicezed struggles stopping the pass over the past 2 seasons, but they have proven to be more than adequate against the run. I think they’ll contain Allen and make Wisconsin sustain long drives.
Michigan State QB Payton Thorne has regressed this year, but it’d be hard not to when you go from having Kenneth Walker III in your backfield to getting absolutely no help in the running game. Over their last 4 games, the Spartans have run for an average of just 47(!) yards per game; this wouldn’t figure to be the matchup where they get those woes fixed. I think the Thorne-Jayden Reed connection has a chance to be lethal, but Michigan State’s predictability offensively makes this a favorable matchup for this Jim Leonhard defense.
I believe this number gives us a lot of leeway given that each of these teams rank in the bottom 30 in the country in pace. Neither of these offenses is built to light up the scoreboard right now, and there’s good reason to believe each defense steps up in this spot.
