Ohio State vs Penn State +14.5 O/U 61
This will be the biggest game of the weekend and this line is in Limbo between the 14 and the 17. Since the Notre Dame game, Ohio State hasn’t scored less than 45 points. They are number 1 on offensive EPA and number 12th in defense. Penn State on the other hand has had just one difficult game vs Michigan and lost pretty badly, but they at least redeemed themselves last week after the bye smoking the Wolverines thus affecting this spread some. Penn State is only 67th in offensive EPA and 23rd on defense. Both schedules are pretty equal up to this point. If the Nittney Lions have any shot of covering this spread, it lies with their secondary who is pretty loaded with Talent. The problem is that Ohio State can also attack them with Miyan Willams and TreVeyon Henderson. Penn State got gashed against the run vs Michigan and they rank 50th in opponent rush EPA. My power number on this game is Ohio State -14 here but I do not want to go against them here. Instead, I might take the Buckeyes team total over 37.5 under the key number of 38.
Ohio State TT over 37.5 -120 – 1.5 stars
Florida vs Georgia -22.5 O/U 56
The World’s largest cocktail party continues in Jacksonville Florida, but this spread certainly doesn’t warrant a close game. The day is supposed to be rainy with a little wind, but I don’t know how that stops Georgia from scoring 1000 points here. The Dawgs rank 1st in offensive rushing play success rate while Florida ranks 107th on defense. The big question is if Florida can put up 17 points to hit this over. I think that they can just due to Richardson’s mobility. Florida has one of the best rushing games in football themselves, and Richardson has shown that he can rise up in big games vs Utah and Tennessee. I also like that both teams are coming off the bye and should look sharp on offense. The Bulldogs average 42 points per game and Florida has a below average defense.
Over 56 for 2 stars and Georgia TT over 39 – 1 star
USC vs Arizona -15 O/U 75
Big Pac 12 matchup here and I have to imagine that the Trojans are salivating to get back on the field after that Utah loss. Both teams are coming off of the bye here but let’s face it, USC has a lot more to play for coming into this game. Remember when I talked about turnover margin and that USC has only lost 1 this year? Well sometimes it’s something that you can use for regression, but USC is number 1 in turnover margin, and I think that they are just being very smart with the ball. Arizona ranks 99th in turnover margin and could cough it up at any point this game. The condoms have a 1.25 positive net yards per play while Arizona is -.46. I just do not see how the Wildcats stop USC from scoring here. When I looked at this stat, I was shocked to see the Wildcat’s rank 131st in opponent rushing success rate and 130th in opponent passing success rate. I think USC names their final score here.
USC -15 – 2.5 stars
