Washington vs Indianapolis -3 O/U 39.5
This line moved pretty quickly to -3 when Matt Ryan was announced as benched. I think that it is hard to determine how good Sam Ehlinger is, but what we do know is that young quarterbacks add more variance to the game. The Colts are stacked at the skill positions with their weakness at the offensive line. As long as Frank Reich designs some plays where he can have his young quarterback get rid of the ball quickly, I think that they should be ok. The Commies rank 29th in pass DVOA having a bad secondary. On the flip side, the Commies are not as bad as some people may think, I had to upgrade them 3 points on their offense after Taylor Heinicke was announced in. The Colts are exactly great against the pass themselves ranking 20th in pass DVOA and I can see Washington have some success throwing to Brown, Samuel and McLaurin. Not enough defense and too much offense on both sides of the ball can spell chaos in this game.
Over 39.5 – 2 stars
San Francisco vs LA Rams +1 O/U 42.5
This game isn’t hard for me to handicap. Is the Rams coming off of a bye? Yes they are, but they are also coming off of a win before that bye against Carolina. San Francisco has been banged up this year, especially in their secondary. It showed badly for them last week vs a dominant Chiefs team but the good news is that the 49ers should be getting Jason Verrett back. Both of these coaches know each other quite well, but let’s face it, Kyle Shanahan owns this matchup winning 7 of their last 8 games, and covering 7 out of the last 8. I have the 49ers as a better team than the Rams, and I think that they pull it together for a big division game still in revenge mode from last year in the playoffs. Metrically, the 9ers have a big advantage offensively and defensively ranking 15th to 31st in offensive EPA and 8th to the Rams 9th in defense. The Rams have a terrible offensive line and that is where the 49ers should feast and get to Matt Stafford. Now I know that Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszcyzuk is out, but that just gives the 49ers more opportunity to get their new weapon in CMC going. The Rams should not have a big home field advantage here due to the shear number of 49er fans that live in the LA area. Take the fighting Shanahan’s to win and cover the small number.
49ers -1 – 2 stars
Teaser: Broncos to +8 with the Jets to +8.5 – 2 stars
