Coming off a profitable 5-3 Week 8, we turn the page to Week 9. I’ve locked in 2 plays so far, one for Thursday and one for Friday. I will start rolling out plays for Saturday in the coming days.
To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Louisiana/Southern Miss UNDER 43.5–Thursday 6:30 PM CT
Louisiana put up 38 points last week against a bottom 5 defense in College Football(Arkansas State), but in their prior 4 games, the Ragin’ Cajuns averaged less than 20 PPG. This is a major step up in competition facing a Southern Miss defense that has allowed just 20 PPG in Sun Belt play and held up well vs Miami and Tulane. I specifically like Southern Miss’s front 7; they’ve recorded 11 sacks in their three Sun Belt games and have proven to be stout against the run by G5 standards. Secondary play is not the strength of this Golden Eagles defense, but I’m not sure how much Louisiana can take advantage. QB Ben Wooldridge has pretty mediocre numbers(62%, 7.2 Y/A) and is still a 1st year starter. He’s played fine each of the past 2 weeks(including on the road at Marshall), but this is assuredly the toughest Front 7 he’ll have gone up against since taking over the starting role.
For as good as Southern Miss’ defense is, the offense is atrocious(less than 17 PPG in Sun Belt play). After losing QB Ty Keyes to a season ending injury early in the season, the Golden Eagles are now relying on QB2 Zach Wilcke to run the offense. Wilcke is throwing for just 6.5 Y/A and, more importantly, has really started to struggle with turnovers, throwing 7 INT’s over USM’s last 3 games. Now, he must face a Louisiana defense that has consistently held opposing QB’s to under 50% completion. The approach from Southern Miss in this game will be to pound the rock with bellcow RB Frank Gore Jr and rely on their defense for a win. Even with that approach, Gore Jr is still under 5 YPC on the season and will have a tough time breaking off chunk runs on this Louisiana defense that is particularly stout at the second level.
A major consideration in this play is pace; Louisiana runs at a below average pace, while Southern Miss runs at one of the slowest paces in CFB. This is a “first to 20 wins” type of game, and any total at or above 41 presents a good opportunity to play the Under. I would lean towards Louisiana winning this game, but I think Southern Miss can extend drives just well enough and force some mistakes from a 1st year starting QB. Under is the best way to play this game.
*CFB(1u): BYU -3 vs East Carolina–Friday 7 PM CT
BYU has endured a rough stretch, losing their last 3 games to Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Liberty. The Liberty loss this past weekend was particularly lopsided, but now, the Cougars return back home to one of the tougher places to play in the country. East Carolina is high-and-mighty after an upset win over UCF(we were on the Pirates), but now, they must travel across the country to play a superior talent roster.
While BYU’s defense has let them down recently(we’ll get to that in a sec), the offense has chugged along fine. QB Jaren Hall holds a TD:INT ratio north of 6:1 and should enjoy a career day against this ECU secondary. ECU has allowed more than 9 Y/A to Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, and Memphis already this year; hell, even Campbell moved the ball well through the air. This is far and away the best WR unit the Pirates will have seen this year, creating an absolute mismatch in the passing game on that side of the ball. BYU RB Chris Brooks has over-performed my expectations this year(6 YPC), and a lot of that can be credited to his stout offensive line. I’ve been impressed with ECU’s ability to get pressure on the QB this year, but this is a major step up in competition up front that I don’t think ECU is ready for.
BYU’s defense has stunk the last 3 weeks. However, some context is needed. Notre Dame really just isolated the nation’s best TE, Michael Mayer, in the passing game, a strategy BYU had no answers for. Arkansas is clearly a superior team with one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the country. Liberty is led by Hugh Freeze, one of the best offensive minds in College Football. There are things to like about ECU’s offense(hell, I backed them the last 2 weeks), but this is BYU’s most favorable matchup in about a month. There’s no doubt that BYU must improve in stopping the run, because ECU RB Keaton Mitchell(6.8 YPC) is truly a game changing back. However, with the amount of explosive plays/points I expect BYU to be able to put up, this game will fall on the arm of QB Holton Ahlers. Ahlers is a 5th year starter that has completed 70% of his passes here in his senior year, but he has clearly benefited from some easy matchups as well as having a dynamic run game. I still feel pretty good about BYU’s secondary; we have to remember, they held Baylor QB Blake Shapen to just 4.9 Y/A earlier this season. ECU’s offense scored just 9 points in their only other tough road game this season @ Tulane; I think the Cougars are plenty capable of stepping up in this spot.
The Over is not a bad look, but given we’ve already seen it steamed up 4 points from open, I’ll hold off. BYU TT OVER is another good look if you aren’t sold on BYU’s defense, but I really think we see the Cougars put it all together here. It can’t be stated how hard of a spot this is for ECU having to travel cross-country and play in altitude on a short week. I think BYU is able to score with ease, take ECU’s offense out of their game plan, and win this game comfortably.
