We cashed the F5 Over in Game 3 of the World Series, and I’m right back at it tonight with another play in Game 4. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(0.83u): Phillies to score 1st(+120) vs Astros–7:03 PM CT
This is a bit of an unconventional play, but I think it’s a good way to avoid a scenario that has become too prevalent to ignore.
There is a lot to like about Phillies SP Aaron Nola; he has held a WHIP at or below 1.00 at Citizens Bank Park each of the past 3 seasons. However, Nola consistently struggles to finish starts, often sputtering in his 2nd/3rd turn through the order. It was a theme throughout the regular season, and it has bit him in each of his past 2 starts this postseason. With that said, I do expect him to look good early in this start. The Astros have really sputtered vs righties on the road down the stretch of this season; since August 1st, they hold a measly 83 wRC+ in this role(100 is league average).
The Phillies have been an absolute juggernaut vs right-handed pitching at home for months now; they hold the highest wRC+ in this role since August 1st. They came into last night having already gotten after Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, and Joe Musgrove this postseason, and then they erupted with 5 HR’s(!) off of righty Lance McCullers Jr. Astros SP Christian Javier had a breakout 2022 season, but I worry about a few aspects of this matchup for him. First off, this is just Javier’s 2nd postseason start here in 2022; contrastly, Aaron Nola will be making his 5th start of the postseason. Secondly, Javier is a heavy fly-ball pitcher, producing twice as many fly balls as ground balls. While his ability to limit hard contact has allowed him to limit HR’s to just 1/9 innings this year, I don’t expect this style to translate well to hitter-friendly ballpark against this slew of Phillies power hitters. Given the Phillies’ current form offensively and acumen in this role down the stretch, I’m expecting another hot start from them in this game.
If you like the Phillies in this game, ISOLATE THEM IN THE FIRST 5 INNINGS. They still hold a major bullpen disadvantage.
