I took a step back in Week 11 after a 6-2 Week 10. I’ve locked in 4 early best bets here for the Week 12 slate and will be back with another wave of plays by tomorrow morning. Let’s make it a great weekend!
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*CFB(1u): Iowa/Minnesota UNDER 32.5–Saturday 3 PM CT
If Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan were healthy, I’d probably lay the points with the Gophers here. However, the senior has sustained multiple concussions this year and is likely to be held out for the rest of the season. He leaves the reins to true freshman Athan Kaliakmanis; while the youngster might have the higher upside, he has completed less than 50% of his passes on the year and holds a 1:3 TD-INT ratio. Minnesota’s identity is within their ground game, and given the confidence they’ll have in their defense, I expect PJ Fleck to take a very risk averse approach and keep his young QB from beating himself against one of the best secondaries in CFB. Even with the ground heavy attack, I don’t expect many chunk runs from the Gophers going up against a very stout Iowa run defense.
Fleck will be content with this approach because he knows Iowa’s offense has nothing in their arsenal to beat them. We all know Spencer Petras is a very poor QB, but what’s not as widely known is the fact that Iowa’s OL is very poor. Aside from the Purdue and Northwestern games, the Hawkeyes have been stuffed in the run game, and Petras has been sacked 3+ times on six separate occasions this year. Like Iowa, Minnesota boasts a Top 5 defense in the country that limits explosion both on the ground and over the top in the passing game. Please don’t fall for the trap that Iowa’s offense has improved; they gained just 146 yards against Wisconsin last week.
This number might be low, but it’s not low enough. I see this as a 13-9 type of game with very little chance of either team surpassing 17 points. This will be a slow paced game where defense takes center stage; Under is the play.
*CFB(1u): Arkansas +2.5 vs Ole Miss–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
As we saw last week, Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson is one of the most valuable players to a team in CFB this year. Arkansas is averaging 37 PPG with Jefferson leading the way and just 15 PPG when he’s out of the lineup(shoutout @BuzzJohnNabors on Twitter for that nugget). Thankfully, he’s taken all the reps at practice this week and will play on Saturday night; that’s more than enough for me to be on the Hogs here.
I really don’t like this spot for Ole Miss; they are on the heels of a gut-wrenching loss to Alabama and have the Egg Bowl looming this coming Thursday. Specifically, Ole Miss’ defense has started to slip as the schedule has strengthened. Auburn ran for 300 yards on this unit, LSU put up 500 total yards, and hell, even Texas A&M put up 480 yards with a true freshman QB making his first career start. Arkansas’ run game is very good; Rocket Sanders is over 6 YPC this season, and Jefferson being back in the lineup only helps his chances to break off chunk runs. Jefferson is mobile and brings balance to this offense, but I also think he’s one of the most underrated passers in the country. He’s averaging over 9 Y/A through the air over the past 2 seasons and boasts a glorious 38:6 TD/INT ratio over that span.
The one thing you have to love about Ole Miss is the way they run the ball. Quinshon Judkins is over 5.5 YPC as a freshman, and QB Jaxson Dart has unexpectedly been a big part of the Rebels ground attack as well. On paper, this is a matchup the Rebels can exploit given Arkansas’ mediocrity defending the run. With that said, sooner or later, this game will fall on the arm of QB Jaxson Dart. Dart’s overall numbers are misleading given how many weaklings Ole Miss played earlier in the season; in SEC play, he is throwing for less than 7.5 Y/A. Arkansas’ pass defense is certainly not great, but the one aspect of this ‘Hogs defense I really like is the pass rush; they recorded 7 sacks against LSU last week. Ole Miss’ OL has started to slip as the competition has ramped up, and I don’t think the Rebels have the skill talent on the outside to be able to pick up their young QB in the passing game.
I don’t think the Over is a bad look either given each team likes to run with pace and these are two balanced offenses that can create explosion in multiple ways. My one hesitation is that, if Arkansas is to jump out to an early lead, they could force Ole Miss to abandon the run game and ride with the weaker aspect of their offense. Rather than worry about that, I’m going to trust Arkansas as the short home ‘dog.
*CFB(1u): Oklahoma State/Oklahoma OVER 66–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
Oklahoma threw up a clunker in Morgantown last week, but we’ve seen them respond well in this spot. The week after they got shut out against Texas, they put up 52 on Kansas. After scoring just 27 at Iowa State, they put up 35 on a solid Baylor defense the next week. This is a spot where I think the Sooners can get into the 40’s.
The Sooners feature an incredibly balanced attack and run at a maniacally fast pace with Jeff Lebby at the helm. QB Dillon Gabriel has yet to put it all together this year, yet he has still thrown for 8.5 Y/A and boasts a 4:1 TD/INT ratio. Oklahoma State’s secondary is very mediocre, and they’ve also really started to struggle against the run; Deuce Vaughn(KST) and Devin Neal(KU) both ran for 7+ YPC against the Cowboys. Oklahoma RB Eric Gray has been one of the hidden gems in CFB this year, already surpassing 1100 yards on the ground at over 6.5 YPC. Oklahoma should also be able to win up front, meaning there’s not one aspect of this matchup I like for Oklahoma State’s defense.
I’ve been Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders’ biggest critic; he has still yet to surpass 7 Y/A against a Power 5 opponent this season. With that said, you don’t need a lethal passing attack to beat this Oklahoma defense. Baylor’s Blake Shapen threw for less than 6 Y/A against the Sooners in Norman, yet the Bears rode the coattails of the run game to put up 38 points in the win. The Sooners’ secondary has improved in recent weeks(under 6 Y/A each of the past 3 games), but this is a matchup where nuance comes into play. Sanders is a 4th year starter who’s mobile, and Mike Gundy is one of the most tenured HC’s in CFB. We might not have seen the Cowboys put it all together this year, and the run game must undoubtedly improve. However, the lack of difference-making talent on the Sooners defense has me thinking the Pokes can get into the 30’s here.
We already talked about Oklahoma’s pace, but Oklahoma State has run at an equally fast pace when Sanders is running the show. I see this as a 42-31 type of game with potential to go higher given my lack of trust in each defense.
*CFB(1u): UCLA +2.5 vs USC–Saturday 7 PM CT
Caleb Williams has gotten most of the notoriety for USC’s success this year, but in my opinion, the most invaluable piece to USC’s offense has been RB Travis Dye. The Oregon transfer ran for over 6 YPC this year but is now lost for the year after sustaining a gruesome leg injury last week. Austin Jones has looked great this year vs inferior competition, but he averaged just 4 YPC from 2020-2021 on 233 carries at Stanford. I think this is a significant downgrade for USC that not enough people will give credence to.
I don’t want to understate how good Caleb Williams has been for USC; 31 TD vs 2 INT is remarkable. However, I think UCLA’s offense can go toe-to-toe with USC. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is a 5th year starter that is far more efficient than Williams(71% completion) and averages 5.5 YPC as a runner. Additionally, UCLA has arguably the best RB in the country in Zack Charbonnet; the Michigan transfer has run for 7.5 YPC and 1145 yards on the season. USC’s defense is pretty mediocre across the board in my opinion. You won’t see it against teams like Washington State, Stanford, and Colorado, but they also have allowed 35+ to Utah, Arizona, and even CALIFORNIA in recent weeks. I think UCLA’s offense has their way here. UCLA’s defense is similarly mediocre, but the one thing they do pretty well is limit explosion on the ground. With Dye out, I think that becomes even more true.
You also have to remember that USC is still led by 1st year HC Lincoln Riley, while Chip Kelly has been building up to this breakout year for 5 years at UCLA. The Bruins have a ton of multiplicity offensively, while Caleb Williams will have to shoulder the majority of the load for USC to pull this off. I don’t like the dynamics of this matchup for the Trojans; I think UCLA wins outright.
