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Kansas State vs TCU -2.5 O/U 62
Kansas state feels somewhat like a public dog here although TCU got lucky and maybe should not have beaten them earlier this season when K-State was forced to play with a backup quarterback. TCU has a very efficient offense that finds explosive plays while Kansas State is more of a grind you out. The Horned Frogs is at a nice 1.46 net yards per play to Kansas State at 1.03. Kansas State has the better defense ranking 31st in explosive plays to 39th for TCU, but they also only allow 19.4 points per game to TCU’s 24. I have TCU -.5 in this game so no play on the side. I think that being these two teams rarely get to this position, I could see both of these teams start out a bit slow. Both of these teams have solid defenses and Kansas State, who ranks 99th in Tempo will not want to get into a shootout early. I like the 1st half under here.
1st half under 30.5 – 2 stars
Coastal Carolina vs Troy -8.5 O/U 48.5
This is a home game for Troy. Sadly, Troy would have been a 2.5 favorite here with Grayson McCall healthy at QB for Coastal. He is worth about 8-9 points to the line, and even if he plays, he could be hobbled. The line is correct where it is now, but I see upside on the under. Both teams rank in the 100s in tempo while Troy has a very solid defense and Coastal will be trying to run the ball being that they are on a backup QB Jarrett Guest who only through the ball 23 times last game. I think there is a chance that Coastal can’t put up many points in this game, yet it is a huge game for Troy who only ranks 66th in offensive success rate and 76th in offensive EPA. The weather is calling for maybe a little rain and I am calling for the under.
Under 48.5 – 2 stars
UCF vs Tulane -3 O/U 57
This game is in Tulane, but we also saw it before. UCF went to Tulane on November 12th and beat the Green Wave 38-31. Basically, USC ran all over this team for 336 yards, and the fact that Tulane ranks 55th in opponent rushing success rate giving up four yards per rush, doesn’t bode well for the Green Wave when the Black Knights rank 14th in rushing success rate at 5.51 yards per rush. Tulane has been fortunate at +7 turnovers and they will need them to win this game. Yards per play is about equal here at 1.2 ish. I took the +4 but I still like it enough at +3.5.
UCF +3.5 – 2.5 stars
Fresno State vs Boise State -3 O/U 54
So there is about 4 (1/3rd) games that Jake Haener hasn’t played in which makes many of the stats worthless. Even with the skewed stats, Fresno still has an offensive success rate of 17th to Boise State at 62. Fresno has had the harder schedule IMO having to go to USC as well as Boise without their QB after a trip across the country to UCONN. You have to love the way Fresno State finished the season with Haener back ripping 7 wins in a row while Boise has struggled a few games such as at Wyoming, at Air Force and a home loss vs BYU. I think Fresno is poised to stop the run this game and confuse Freshman quarterback Taylen Green enough to at least cover this spread if not win outright. I have +4.5 in my pocket but +3 is also good IMO.
Fresno +3 – 2.5 stars
