Monday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl: UConn vs. Marshall -12.5 O/U 40.5
Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Brooks Stadium — Conway, S.C.
- UConn: Motivation – High – They finally got to a bowl but it’s fun to party in Myrtle Beach.
- Marshall: Motivation – Medium Low – Bad opponent and might go out the night before.
- Home Field – None
- Charles Huff, Marshall – 0-1 ATS in Bowl Games.
- Jim Mora Jr, UCONN – 2-2 ATS in Bowl Games
- Marshall has a .87 yards per play advantage over the Huskies.
- UCONN had a nice finish to their season winning 5 of their last 7 games including Boston College and Liberty.
- Marshall’s defense ranks 2nd in success rate and number 1 in defensive EPA per play.
- I have Marshall -11 so no play but a slight lean to UCONN.
Tuesday, Dec. 20
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan +4 O/U 54
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Albertsons Stadium — Boise, Idaho
- San Jose State: Motivation – Low – They go to Boise all the time and probably was robbed or at least assaulted while they were there.
- Eastern Michigan: Medium Low – These kids got totally screwed. Now they might drink to just block out the fact that they are in Boise Idaho. (Kip)
- Home Field: None
- Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan – 3-1 ATS in bowl games.
- Brent Brennan, San Jose State – 0-1 ATS in bowl games.
- I give San Jose credit for getting to a bowl game this year, but some of their wins are credit to the +12 turnovers ranking 5th in the nation in turnover ratio.
- San Jose State has a +.82 yards per play advantage, but I would argue that the Eagles had the better finish to their season winning four of their last 5 games to San Jose State losing two out of their last three.
- I have San Jose State -2 here so I think a small play on Eastern Michigan is warrented.
- I played Eastern Michigan at +4.5 but I still like it over the 3.
Eastern Michigan +4 – 1.5 stars
Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Liberty +5 O/U 54
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: FAU Stadium — Boca Raton, Fla.
- Toledo: Motivation – Medium Low – They won the Mac and now it’s time to party.
- Liberty: Motivation – Medium – This team lost their coach but they at least do get a very good one coming in.
- Home Field: None
- Jason Candle, Toledo – 1-4 ATS in bowl games which is pretty bad.
- Liberty lost Hugh Freeze to Auburn, but they know that they can look forward to Jamey Chadwell.
- SOS is pretty equal at 128 for Toledo and 121 for Liberty.
- Toledo has a .27 net yards per play advantage.
- Toledo is a sloppy team ranking 116th in turnover ratio at -8 to Liberty at -3.
- Both defenses are pretty solid here ranking top 10 in success rate and top 21 in EPA.
- Barring any setbacks, I could see this going under, but I also like Liberty some and I have this game a Pickem.
Under 54 points – 2 stars and Liberty +5 – 1 stars
Wednesday, Dec. 21
New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky +4.5 O/U 56
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.
- South Alabama: Motivation – High – They haven’t went bowling in a while.
- Western Kentucky: Motivation – Medium – Decent matchup on a disappointing season.
- Home Field: South Alabama some at 260 miles way.
- Tyson Helton, Western Kentucky – 1-1-1 ATS in bowl games.
- SOS pretty close with South Alabama at 129th and Western Kentucky at 11th.
- Western Kentucky has a .34 net yards per play advantage here, but the best unit on the field is South Alabama’s defense ranking 16th in success rate and 12th in defensive EPA par play.
- My power ratings align with the market here, but I am honestly not sure why? South Alabama has looked great this year while Western Kentucky has disappointed.
- The Sun belt is better than Conference USA and Western Kentucky’s quarterback has been wishy washy with this bowl game.
South Alabama -4.5 – 2 stars
Thursday, Dec. 22
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Baylor -4.5 O/U 50
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, Texas
- Air Force: Motivation – High – Get to play a power 5.
- Baylor: Motivation – Medium – Good coach in Aranda.
- Home Field: Baylor is only 108 miles away!
- Troy Calhoun, Air Force – 7-4
- Dave Aranda, Baylor – 1-0
- There is a massive strength of schedule discrepancy here with Baylor at 15th and Air force at 116th.
- Baylor has a .34 net yards per play advantage over Air Force.
- I like how Baylor has three weeks to prepare for the option attack.
- I have Baylor -7.75
Baylor -4.5 – 2 stars
Friday, Dec. 23
Gasparilla Bowl: Missouri vs. Wake Forest -1 O/U 60.5
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.
- Wake Forest: Motivation – Medium – They probably wanted bigger and better things but at least they go on vacation.
- Missouri: Motivation – Medium High – This team accomplished a lot this year compared to others.
- Home Field: None
- Eliah Drinkwitz, Missouri – 1-0 ATS in bowl games.
- Dave Clawson, Wake Forest – 3-5 ATS in bowl games.
- Missouri will be without their best WR in Dominic Lovett who had over twice the yards than the second best in the team.
- This is basically Wake’s offense ranking 26th in success rate against Missouri’s defense ranking 20th in success rate. Missouri though does give up a lot of explosive plays ranking 126th in the nation.
- Missouri had the harder strength of schedule here ranking 29th to Wake Forest at 59th.
- Missouri has a .15 net yard per play advantage.
- Small lean to Wake Forest.
Independence Bowl: Houston vs. Louisiana +6.5 O/U 58
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Independence Stadium — Shreveport, La.
- Houston: Motivation – Medium – Not the season that they hoped for.
- Louisiana: Motivation – Medium High – They step up slightly in class.
- Home Field: None – Same distance for both schools around 250 miles away.
- Michael Desormeaux, Louisiana – 1-0 ATS in bowl games.
- Dana Holgorsen, Houston – 2-7 ATS in bowl games.
- Louisiana
- QB Ben Wooldridge (Injury)
- RB Terrence Williams (Injury)
- WR Michael Jefferson (Opt-out)
- Ben Wooldridge was knocked out with two games left and Michael Jefferson is Louisiana’s best WR.
- Looks like Houston QB Clayton Tune will play in the game which is huge.
- Louisiana has been Jeckyl and Hyde this year losing to Louisiana Monroe and beating Marshall and Georgia Southern.
- This game is Clayton Tune’s last opportunity to impress and go out with a bang.
- Houston has a .66 net yards per play advantage.
- Houston has had the harder SOS ranking 68th to Louisiana ranking 102.
- I have Houston -10 with the injury and opt outs, but I really find it hard to trust Dana Holgorsen in bowl games so I’ll make my play small.
Houston -7 – 1.5 stars
