NY Giants vs Washington -5 O/U 40
This is a weird back to back game for Washington being that they just had a bye week right after playing this Giants team. Either way, what the heck is Washington doing here laying more than three points to a divisional opponent like the Giants? Are the G-men overrated? Yes, but that doesn’t mean the Commies are a good football team either… Over the last eight head to head matchups, the Giants are 6-2 ATS against this team. The recent game that these two teams just played back on December 4th ending in a tie, and the Box score doesn’t tell me that it should have been all that different. Looking at the metrics, the Giants are a net -.6 yards per play to Washington’s -.5. The Giants rank 13th in offensive EPA to the Giants at 26th. The Commander’s defense is certainly better ranking 7th in EPA to the Giants at 29th, but the Commies came off of that Giants game a bit banged up themselves, and I am not sure an extra week might be enough to get a couple of key guys back on defense such as DE Chase Young with a knee issue, DE Efe Obada with a finger, and Benjamin St Juste with an ankle injury as well. The biggest loss for the Commanders is their center, and the leader of their offensive line in Tyler Larson hat just happened last game. It will take a while to adjust. Both of these teams are in the playoff hunt at 7-5-1 and both will be motivated to win this game.
Giants +5 – 3 stars
Indianapolis vs Minnesota -3.5 O/U 47.5
I guess it’s another fade the bye week situation here, but it isn’t hard to see that the Colts are pretty much out of playoff contention while the Vikings are fighting for 1st place and the bye. After the Colts beat the Raiders following the firing of Frank Reich, everyone jumped on Jeff Saturday’s nuts thinking that he can actually fix this team. The problem is that Saturday has the cards deeply stacked against him, and he doesn’t have a real offensive coordinator to help guide him. Indy’s in-eptness started to show over the last few weeks losing at home to a bad Pittsburgh team and then getting blown out by the Eagles. If you want a chance to compete with the Vikings, you have to be able to put up some points. The Colts rank 31st in offensive EPA and 28th in passing yards per attempt. Their offensive line is garbage, and they can’t seem to even run the ball with the best back in the whole league. Michelangelo di Lodovico Buonarroti Simoni’s statue of Matt Ryan is quite immobile in the pocket. His career is pretty much toast here and I can see some quit in this team. As bad as the Vikings have shown on defense, they at least rank number 15th in defensive EPA per play while only allowing 4.1 yards per rush. I think the Queens put the Ponies in a quitting situation in the second half. Take Minnesota. You like that?
Vikings -3.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: Ravens to +9 with the Packers to -1 – 2 stars
