A 1-2 night in CBB drops me to 33-26-1 on the season. I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight looking to bounce back strong!
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*CBB(0.5u): Brown TT UNDER 57 @ Northwestern–12 PM CT
I’m willing to trust Northwestern’s defense against dang near anybody; I power rate this as a Top 10 defense in the country. The Wildcats are a Top 25 defensive rebounding team in America and will force Brown to make tough, contested shots to surpass this number. On the year, Brown is shooting less than 43% from the field, less than 33% from beyond the arc, and a pitiful 57% from the FT line. The Bears have played just 1 Power 5 opponent this year, and they were held to 50 at Michigan State.
Northwestern will slow the pace of this game down considerably and hold Brown to an inefficient day.
*CBB(0.5u): Georgetown/DePaul OVER 153.5–7 PM CT
It’s pretty clear that Georgetown’s defense is one you’re going to want to fade. The Hoyas have allowed 80 or more on five separate occasions already this year, including in each of their last 3 games. DePaul is very aggressive at shooting the 3 ball and do so plenty competent enough(35.5%) to have success in this matchup. Georgetown also ranks just 251st in defensive rebounding %, meaning there should be plenty of second chance opportunities for the Blue Demons.
This is a matchup where I have no issue trusting Georgetown’s offense. When you’re allowing 83 to Northwestern, 89 to Samford, and 82 to Oklahoma State like DePaul has, you’re simply not a very good defense. The Blue Demons one-up Georgetown by ranking an even-worse 309th in defensive rebounding % and will be at a severe size mismatch down low.
Each team likes to use tempo to their advantage, and each defense is poor on the glass. Ultimately, both of these teams’ prowess from the FT line(DePaul shoots nearly 80%) is enough to get me on this Over.
*CBB(0.5u): Cincinnati 1H -2.5 vs Tulane–8 PM CT
Cincinnati will hold a massive advantage down low in this matchup. Tulane ranks a laughable 358th in offensive rebounding %, meaning the Green Wave will need borderline elite shotmaking to hang in this game. However, Cincinnati holds an edge in both FG% and 3ptFG% despite playing a FAR tougher schedule up to this point. Tulane’s defense is pretty clearly the worst unit on the floor in this matchup, so I think the Bearcats have a far more sustainable path to points here.
Why 1H vs full game? Tulane shoots a staggering 80% from the FT line, while Cincinnati lags far behind shooting under 70%. That is far too big of a discrepancy to trust Cincinnati late in this game.
