The Sony Open – Preview & Picks

Jon Rahm captures the Sentry Tournament of Champions coming from seven strokes back on Sunday to overtake Collin Morikawa. He has now won on the PGA Tour in each of his last seven seasons. We missed on both of our outright selections and went one for two on our top-10 picks for a small loss.

We’re hopping islands this week and heading to Honolulu for the Sony Open. Nineteen players who participated in the Sentry Tournament of Champions will play in this week’s event as they’re already in Hawaii. Tom Hoge will be making a slight detour before heading back to Hawaii. He’s heading to Los Angeles to watch his alma mater, TCU, take place in the college football national championship.

The Sony Open will be the first full-field event of the 2023 season. It’s also the last tournament held in Hawaii as we begin the California swing next week. The American Express, Farmer’s Insurance Open, and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will all take place out there in the coming weeks.

 

Tournament Information:

• Dates: January 12th, 2023 – January 15th, 2023
• Location: Honolulu, Hawaii, United States
• Course: Waialae Country Club
• Course Type: Coastal
• Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
• Length: 7,044 yards
• Format: 72-hole stroke play
• Greens: Bermudagrass .120”
• Fairways: Bermudagrass .400”
• Rough: Bermudagrass 3”
• Bunkers: 83
• Water Hazards: 4 (In-Play on 5 Holes)
• Average Green Size: 7,100 sq. ft.
• Stimpmeter: 11-12 ft.
• Purse/ Winner: $7,900,000/$1,422,000
• FedEx Cup Points: 500
• Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties
• Course Scoring Average:
  • 2022: 68.00 (-2.00), Rank 41 of 50
  • 2021: 67.98 (-2.02), Rank 45 of 51
  • 2020: 70.51 (+0.51), Rank 9 of 41
• Historic Cut Line:
  • 2022: -5
  • 2021: -4
  • 2020: +1

Comparable Courses & Greens:

TV Information:

• Round 1: Thursday, January 12th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 7:00 PM – 10:30 PM
• Round 2: Friday, January 13th, 2023
  • Golf Channel – 7:00 PM – 10:30 PM
• Round 3: Saturday, January 14th, 2023
  • NBC – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM
• Round 4: Sunday, January 15th, 2023
  • NBC – 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
  • Golf Channel – 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM

 

Weather:

• Thursday: Sunny 72 F, 12 mp/h E, 62% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Friday: Sunny 73 F, 6 mp/h SSE, 64% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Saturday: Mostly Sunny 75 F, 8 mp/h E, 65% Humidity, 0% Chance of Rain
• Sunday: Partly Cloudy 75 F, 14 mp/h ENE, 72% Humidity, 10% Chance of Rain

 

Course/ Tournament History:

The Sony Open was inaugurated in 1965 as the Hawaiian Open. It’s been held at Waialae Country Club ever since. It’s also the third oldest host course on the PGA Tour following only Colonial and Pebble Beach.

Waialae Country Club was founded 96 years ago in 1927. The course was originally built by the Territorial Hotel Company as part of a promotional program to encourage travel to Hawaii. Seth Raynor, the architect, incorporated several aspects from other major courses around the world including St. Andrews, North Berwick Golf Club, and the Biarritz Course.

The typical front and back nines are switched this week for the PGA Tour as the “9th” features a picturesque dog-leg creating a more exciting finish. This was done so to utilize the sun’s power setting in the west.

72-Hole Record: 253, Justin Thomas (2017)

18-Hole Record: 59, Justin Thomas (Round 1, 2017)

 

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

Waialae is completely different from what we saw last week at Kapalua. The course is about ~400 yards less and puts more emphasis on accuracy. The fairways are treelined and tight, while the greens are small with tough pin locations. The players will have shorter wedges into greens this week which is an advantage and something they’ll need to excel at as approach play has been a major key to victory here.

Waialae Country Club is one of the shorter courses on tour and plays roughly 7,044 yards. It’s a Par 70 which means Par 4 Scoring will be placed at a premium this week as Waialae only features two Par 5’s. There are four Par 3’s on the course but all of them play roughly 200 yards or less. Last year, this was one of the easiest events in terms of Par 3 and Par 5 Scoring.

The main defense for the course is the wind but we are expected to have similar conditions as last week which means it won’t be a major factor. In addition to the wind, the tight fairways can punish inaccurate players off the tee putting them at a disadvantage on their approach shots.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 8, 17

For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.

 

Key Statistics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
• Par 3 Scoring: 175-200 Yards (x3)
• Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards (x5)
• Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards (x5)
• Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x2)
• Proximity: 125-150 Yards
• Proximity: 150-175 Yards
• Proximity: 175-200 Yards
• Comparable Courses and Event History

 

The Field/ Odds:

144 Players will compete in the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club this week. 19 of the 39 players who competed in the Sentry Tournament of Champions will make the trip to Honolulu.

• Tom Kim (+1100), will be making his Sony Open debut at Waialae Country Club this week. He has finished inside the top 25 in each of his last five starts on tour.
• Sungjae Im (+1400), finished T13 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. He’ll be making his fifth appearance at Waialae Country Club making the cut in every edition besides last year. His best finish at this event was in his debut where he finished T16 back in 2019.
• Jordan Spieth (+1400), has finished inside the top 20 in four of his last starts on the PGA Tour. He’s missed the cut in two of his four starts at Waialae Country Club including last year. In those two other appearances, he finished T18 and 3rd.
• Hideki Matsuyama (+1800), is the defending champion of the Sony Open. He finished T21 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week after withdrawing at the Houston Open due to injury.
• Brian Harman (+1800), has been in great form since finishing T21 at the Tour Championship. In his four starts on Tour following that, he’s finished T15/ T23/ 2/ T2/ T16. He posted four consecutive top-20 finishes at Waialae Country Club from 2015-2018 but has failed to crack the top-20 in his four appearances following that run.

 

Previous Winners in the field: Hideki Matsuyama (’22), Matt Kuchar (’19), Patton Kizzire (’18), Jimmy Walker (’15, ’14), Russell Henley (’13), Ryan Palmer (’10), and Zach Johnson (’09).

Notable Withdraws: Patrick Rodgers, James Hahn

 

To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.

To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.

 

Horses for Courses:

• Corey Conners: T39/ T3/ T12/ 11
• Keith Mitchell: T25/ T16/ MC/ T14/ T7
• Adam Svensson: T43/ T7
• Gary Woodland: MC/ MC/ T3/ T13/ T6/ T7/ MDF
• Brendan Steele: 2/ T4/ MC
• Hideki Matsuyama: MC/ MC/ MC/ T78/ T27/ T51/ T12/ T19/ 1

 

Donkeys for Courses:

“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.

• Michael Gligic: MC/ MC/ MC
• Chesson Hadley: MC/ MC/ MC
• Adam Schenk: T39/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC
• Adam Long: MC/ MC/ MC
• Troy Merritt: T20/ MC/ MC/ T30/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ MC/ T56
• J.J. Spaun: MC/ T47/ MC/ MC/ MC

 

Previous Winners Scores & Prices:

• 2022: Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
  • Price: 20-1
• 2021: Kevin Na (-21)
  • Price: 80-1
• 2020: Cameron Smith (-11)
  • Price: 55-1
• 2019: Matt Kuchar (-22)
  • Price: 40-1
• 2018: Patton Kizzire (-17)
  • Price: 80-1

 

Picks (Outrights):

• Billy Horschel (+3500) – PointsBet
  • Risk: 0.23 to win 8.05 Units

• Keegan Bradley (+4000) – PointsBet
  • Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

Keegan Bradley has been playing some great golf to start the 2022-23 season winning the ZOZO Championship three starts ago. Following that victory, he placed T21 at the CJ up and 34th at the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. In terms of course history, he finished T12 in 2020 and 2022. His putting can be worrisome at times but he ranks well in every other key category. However, we’ve seen him putt well on Bermuda earlier this year gaining strokes on the green at both the CJ Cup and Sanderson Farms Championship.

• Kyoung-Hoon (KH) Lee (+4000) – PointsBet
  • Risk: 0.20 to win 8.00 Units

• Keith Mitchell (+4500) – PointsBet
  • Risk: 0.18 to win 8.10 Units

Keith Mitchell seems to love playing at Waialae finishing T25 or better in four of his five appearances here. He didn’t play last week so his last start was back in November at the RSM Classic where he finished T39. Before that, he placed T9 at the Houston Open, which is his best finish this season. His approach play can be inconsistent at times but as we saw earlier this year at the Houston Open he was fantastic with his approach shots gaining 1.42 strokes over the field. Mitchell’s putting has also been trending in the right direction and he gained strokes at Waialae in 2021 and 2022.

• Si Woo Kim (+5000) – BetRivers
  • Risk: 0.16 to win 8.00 Units

• Gary Woodland (+6000) – Caesars
  • Risk: 0.14 to win 8.40 Units

• Mackenzie Hughes (+6600) – BetMGM
  • Risk: 0.13 to win 8.58 Units

Hughes won earlier this season at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Since then he has made the cut in three of his last four events. In the events he made the cut, he’s finished T23, T16, and T21. Last year at Waialae he gained 1.49 strokes putting, placing T19. He’s a great ball striker with a short game to match making him a great fit this week.

Total Risk on Outrights: 1.24 Units

 

Picks (Top 20):

• Corey Conners (+120) – DraftKings
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.20 Units

Corey Conners has been in great form lately finishing inside the top 25 in each of his last five events. He also has a great course history Waialae finishing T39/ T3/ T12/ T11 in his four appearances. Conners’ accuracy off the tee should set him up nicely as he is a great ball striker ranking 45th in strokes gained on approach. While his putting can be inconsistent, he has gained strokes on the green in two of his last three starts and each time at Waialae. He’s a great course fit as seen by his previous finishes and when you add in his recent form, he’s set up for success this week.

• Tom Hoge (+130) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units

Tom Hoge played in the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week finishing T3 but made a slight detour before heading to Honolulu. He went to Los Angeles to see TCU, his alma mater, play in the college football national championship. Safe to say, he’s probably not in a great mood after TCU lost 65-7. Hoge had missed the cut twice in a row before his finish at Kapalua. However, before that, he had a great run finishing T13 or better in five consecutive events. Hoge ranks well in most categories besides strokes gained around the green. However, he’s shown his approach play and putting can propel him past that weakness in his game. This course sets up nicely for Hoge who finished 3rd here back in 2018.

Total Risk on Top 20s: 2.00 Units

 

Picks (Top 40):

• Adam Svensson (+110) – BetRivers
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.10 Units

Adam Svensson won the RSM Classic before the break and finished 37th last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. In his last three events, he’s finished inside the top 40. He’s played at Waialae twice before, finishing T43 in his debut (2019) and T7 last year. Svensson seems to fit the course nicely given his accuracy off the tee, ball-striking, and short game. The issue for him seems to come on the greens. He currently ranks 95th in strokes gained putting and was horrific last week at Kapalua. However, he has gained strokes on the green in both of his previous appearances at this course. If he continues that trend, he has a great shot to compete this week.

• Nick Hardy (+150) – FanDuel
  • Risk: 1.00 to win 1.50 Units

Nick Hardy has played in six tournaments during the 2022-23 season making the cut in five of them. His last event, the RSM Classic, was the lone event he didn’t end up making it to the weekend. He struggled on the greens while gaining strokes in every other category. This has been an issue for him as he’s lost strokes putting in each of his last six events. However, when we look at his two previous performances at Waialae, he’s gained strokes putting both times. Hardy has a great approach game, ranking 8th in strokes gained, and also ranks 20th in strokes gained tee to green. If he can putt well, like he’s done his last two times here, he should be able to finish inside the top 40.

Just Missed: Brendan Steele (Concerned about his back injury), Hayden Buckley (His approach play has been trending in the wrong direction)

Total Risk on Top 40s: 2.00 Units

 

Total Risk on the Sony Open: 5.24 Units 

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.