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Oklahoma vs TCU -6.5 O/U 138
We are smack dab into conference play, and hunting for undervalued dogs is what I like to do. Oklahoma is a team that should be a little desperate here losing five out of their last 7 conference games. They are currently on the bubble when it comes to the NCAA tournament and they desperately need a quadrant 1 win. TCU is cruising after a nice win at the Phog on Saturday. This is their first win EVER away vs Kansas and the kids are probably still celebrating. In saying that, I now think that TCU is a bit overrated, and when it comes to this game, the numbers do not add up. The Sooners play a slow calculated pace with great shooting ranking 18th in effective FG% to TCU’s 145th. From down town, Oklahoma ranks 72nd in 3P% while TCU ranks a dismal 335th. Now where TCU has an advantage is offensive boards ranking 31st in the nation, but on defense they only rank 286th with that fast pace. The Sooners have a knack for playing good defense and that could hurt a Horned Frogs team fresh off of a huge win. Lastly, the Sooners are a good away team ranking 55th in away from home games to TCU who is a poor home team ranking 322nd at their own court. Gonna go with Oklahoma here to at least cover this spread and if they can limit the turnovers, they will have a chance to win this one outright.
Oklahoma +6.5 – 2 stars
Penn State vs Rutgers -6 O/U 130
This is a simple handicap for me. Rutgers is a very good home team and there is no disagreement with that, but they are also a slower paced team who sometimes struggles on offense. Rutgers effective FG% is only 47.5 ranking 295th in the nation. They are great at defense and all ranking 10th in the nation in opponent FG%, but if opponents can come off the ball screen with clean looks, that could be a big problem for the Scarlet Knights. According to shot quality bets, Penn State ranking 70th coming off ball screens while Rutgers ranks 199th in that Category. Now Rutgers is good at finishing at the rim ranking 4th in the nation, but Penn State can defend that ranking 7th in the nation near the rim on defense. If there is an area that Rutgers needs to improve on, it is defending the three ball only ranking 268th in catch and shoot threes. Penn State ranks 53rd in the nation in catch and shoot threes and number six in three point percentage. Take the Nittany Lions in a game where points will come at a premium.
Penn State +6 – 2 stars
